Trend
-26 Latest quarter change
+489 Change across series
48 Official data points
Blackburn with Darwen
Mr Adnan Hussain
2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Blackburn with Darwen.
765 people housed on asylum support in Blackburn with Darwen
Rank 32 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 47.07 per 10,000 puts Blackburn with Darwen in the 99th percentile. That means this area carries more asylum seekers per head than 90% of the country. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2028. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £42M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Blackburn with Darwen
£15.1Mestimated hotel costs/year
£2.0Msubsistence payments/year
£918KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 765 people on asylum support in Blackburn with Darwen (0.71% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Blackburn with Darwen: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 751
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 14
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 130
Afghan programme 70
Resettlement cumulative 0
Population context
All pathways total 965
Share of local population 0.59%
Ethnic composition projection
Blackburn with Darwen: WBI 56.9% (2021) → 26.7% (2051). White British minority by ~2028. 80% CI: 23.1–26.2%.
Ethnic composition: Blackburn with Darwen
White British White Other Asian Mixed 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Blackburn with Darwen
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Blackburn with Darwen ranges from 32.1% to 40.5% by 2051. That is a 8.5pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 35.3% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 36.8% (2021) → 45.5% (2051). Christian 40.0% → 8.5%.
Religion: Blackburn with Darwen
Christian No religion Muslim
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
18.1% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.54). 87.5% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Blackburn with Darwen
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
emerging diversity: Low foreign-born share with significant ethnic diversity suggests second/third-generation growth is the primary driver. Less sensitive to immigration policy changes.
Census 2021 mobility: 7.2% moved within UK, 0.8% arrived from abroad
other 10.3% internal, 6.5% international
black 12.1% internal, 2.7% international
mixed 11.3% internal, 1.5% international
white other 9.5% internal, 3.1% international
white british 7.7% internal, 0.2% international
asian 5.6% internal, 1.3% international
Why Blackburn with Darwen is changing
-9.7ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Blackburn with Darwen on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 56.5%
Mixed 63.3%
White Other 69.6%
Other 52.3%
Homeownership rate
White British 62.7%
Mixed 37.9%
White Other 33.5%
Other 33.5%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 26.8%
Mixed 34%
White Other 24.8%
Other 31.2%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 27,931 pupils. 39.5% White British. Schools are 17.4pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
Asian 48.4%
White British 39.5%
Mixed 4%
White Other 3.6%
Other 2.3%
Black 2.2%
What this means
Schools are 17pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
60.5% Minority pupils now
68.5% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
39.3% Primary WBI
38.9% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -0.93pp/year. Gradual diversification in school-age population.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 43.8% vs school 39.5% (-4.3pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
Crime
98.2 crimes per 1,000 residents (76th percentile). Down 2.1% year-on-year.
Crime breakdown
Key metrics
98.2 Per 1,000 residents
312 Hate crimes
35.1 Violent crime /1,000
Source
ONS recorded crime, Year ending March 2024. Correlation with asylum dispersal does not imply causation.
SEND pressure
EHCP rate: 412 per 10,000 pupils (68th percentile). 5-year growth: +42.1%.
Academic year 2023/24 Rapid growth
Primary need types
Key metrics
2,841 Total EHCPs
31.2% ASD as primary need
Source
DfE SEN2 return, Academic year 2023/24. Rising EHCPs reflect multiple factors, not solely population change.
Social care
Adult social care: £612 per capita (88th percentile).
£612 Gross spend per capita
418 Residential per 10k 65+
18.7 Quality of life (ASCOF 1A)
1,842 Delayed transfer days
Source
NHS Digital SALT/ASCOF, 2023/24.
Pressure index
Combined score across 5 domains: 85.4/100.
High pressure
47.1 Asylum rate /10k
-0.97pp WB annual change
98.2 Crime /1,000
+42.1% SEND 5yr growth
£612 ASC /capita
Methodology
Each domain converted to percentile rank (0-100). Composite = unweighted mean. Measures correlation, not causation.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
765 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
47.07 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North West by supported asylum.