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North West

Blackburn with Darwen

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Mr Adnan Hussain
Mr Adnan HussainIndependent · Blackburn

2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Blackburn with Darwen.

760 people on asylum support in Blackburn with Darwen

Rank 30 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 46.4 per 10,000 puts Blackburn with Darwen in the 99th percentile. That means this area carries more asylum seekers per head than 90% of the country. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2027. 14 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 760 people at £107 per person per day is about £29.7M a year.

What asylum costs Blackburn with Darwen

£17.2Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.9Msubsistence payments/year
£912KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 760 people on asylum support in Blackburn with Darwen(0.81% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Blackburn with Darwen: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

759
7855232620Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Sept 2025Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 2014270
Jun 2014280
Sept 2014278
Dec 2014304
Mar 2015299
Jun 2015299
Sept 2015322
Dec 2015334
Mar 2016336
Jun 2016330
Sept 2016334
Dec 2016338
Mar 2017346
Jun 2017323
Sept 2017340
Dec 2017344
Mar 2018367
Jun 2018394
Sept 2018382
Dec 2018362
Mar 2019361
Jun 2019346
Sept 2019319
Dec 2019324
Mar 2020321
Jun 2020330
Sept 2020313
Dec 2020314
Mar 2021299
Jun 2021288
Sept 2021276
Dec 2021290
Mar 2022322
Jun 2022336
Sept 2022356
Dec 2022349
Mar 2023368
Jun 2023657
Sept 2023669
Dec 2023661
Mar 2024769
Jun 2024721
Sept 2024742
Dec 2024702
Mar 2025728
Jun 2025744
Sept 2025785
Dec 2025759

Trend

-26Latest quarter change
+489Change across series
48Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation746
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only14
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
760
Homes for Ukraine
134
Afghan programme
70
Resettlement cumulative
0

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine134
Afghan programme70
Resettlement cumulative0

Population context

All pathways total964
Share of local population0.59%

Ethnic composition projection

Blackburn with Darwen: White British 56.9% (2021) to 24.6% (2051). White British minority by ~2027. 80% CI: 22.8, 27.4%.

Ethnic composition: Blackburn with Darwen

018365472% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 17% in 2061White Other 5% in 2061Asian 63% in 2061Mixed 6% in 2061Other 7% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Blackburn with Darwen

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
67%
28%
2021
57%
36%
2031proj
46%
44%
2041proj
35%
52%
2051proj
25%
59%
2061proj
17%
63%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Blackburn with Darwen ranges from32.1% to 40.5%by 2051. That is a 8.5pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 35.3% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 36.8% (2021) → 45.5% (2051). Christian 40.0% → 8.5%.

Religion: Blackburn with Darwen

415273951%Census 2021Christian 9% in 2051No religion 45% in 2051Muslim 46% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslim

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

18.1% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.54). 87.5% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Blackburn with Darwen

1332506887%Census 2021UK-born 49% in 2051Foreign-born 51% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Low foreign-born share with significant ethnic diversity suggests second/third-generation growth is the primary driver. Less sensitive to immigration policy changes.

Census 2021 mobility: 7.2% moved within UK, 0.8% arrived from abroad
other10.3% internal, 6.5% international
black12.1% internal, 2.7% international
mixed11.3% internal, 1.5% international
white other9.5% internal, 3.1% international
white british7.7% internal, 0.2% international
asian5.6% internal, 1.3% international

Why Blackburn with Darwen is changing

-9.7pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
+1.1pp
Local migration
-4.4pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Blackburn with Darwen on UK Demographics →