Trend
-99 Latest quarter change
+573 Change across series
40 Official data points
Blackpool
Lorraine Beavers
2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Blackpool.
496 people housed on asylum support in Blackpool
Rank 63 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 34.4 per 10,000 puts Blackpool in the 93rd percentile. That means this area carries more asylum seekers per head than 90% of the country. 262 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £27M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Blackpool
£9.8Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.3Msubsistence payments/year
£595KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 496 people on asylum support in Blackpool (0.46% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Blackpool: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 230
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 4
Contingency accommodation 262
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 153
Afghan programme 63
Resettlement cumulative 84
Population context
All pathways total 712
Share of local population 0.49%
Ethnic composition projection
Blackpool: WBI 90.4% (2021) → 76.3% (2051). 80% CI: 69.9–73.9%.
Ethnic composition: Blackpool
White British White Other Asian Mixed 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Blackpool
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Blackpool ranges from 56.8% to 76.4% by 2051. That is a 19.6pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 64.0% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 1.5% (2021) → 4.2% (2051). Christian 53.7% → 9.7%.
Religion: Blackpool
Christian No religion Muslim
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
7.9% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.25). 95.6% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Blackpool
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 8.6% moved within UK, 0.6% arrived from abroad
black 20.9% internal, 8.5% international
asian 10.5% internal, 10.6% international
other 11.2% internal, 4.3% international
white other 10.9% internal, 2.7% international
mixed 12.5% internal, 0.8% international
white british 8.3% internal, 0.2% international
Why Blackpool is changing
-3.3ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Blackpool on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 54.6%
Mixed 60.9%
White Other 68.8%
Other 62.9%
Homeownership rate
White British 58.9%
Mixed 39.7%
White Other 39.4%
Other 36.2%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 22.1%
Mixed 27.8%
White Other 28.2%
Other 28.8%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 19,547 pupils. 82.1% White British. Schools are 8.3pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 82.1%
Asian 5.6%
White Other 5.4%
Mixed 4.1%
Black 1.7%
Other 1.2%
What this means
Schools are 8pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
17.9% Minority pupils now
28.2% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
81% Primary WBI
83% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -0.94pp/year. Gradual diversification in school-age population.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 87.6% vs school 82.1% (-5.5pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
Crime
142.8 crimes per 1,000 residents (96th percentile). Down 3.4% year-on-year.
Crime breakdown
Key metrics
142.8 Per 1,000 residents
289 Hate crimes
52.3 Violent crime /1,000
Source
ONS recorded crime, Year ending March 2024. Correlation with asylum dispersal does not imply causation.
SEND pressure
EHCP rate: 478 per 10,000 pupils (96th percentile). 5-year growth: +51.2%.
Academic year 2023/24 Rapid growth
Primary need types
Key metrics
2,124 Total EHCPs
28.4% ASD as primary need
Source
DfE SEN2 return, Academic year 2023/24. Rising EHCPs reflect multiple factors, not solely population change.
Social care
Adult social care: £724 per capita (96th percentile).
£724 Gross spend per capita
482 Residential per 10k 65+
17.8 Quality of life (ASCOF 1A)
2,124 Delayed transfer days
Source
NHS Digital SALT/ASCOF, 2023/24.
Pressure index
Combined score across 5 domains: 89.7/100.
High pressure
34.4 Asylum rate /10k
-0.33pp WB annual change
142.8 Crime /1,000
+51.2% SEND 5yr growth
£724 ASC /capita
Methodology
Each domain converted to percentile rank (0-100). Composite = unweighted mean. Measures correlation, not causation.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
496 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
34.4 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
262 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North West by supported asylum.