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North West

Bolton

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Kirith Entwistle
Kirith EntwistleLabour · Bolton North East

3 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Bolton.

1,037 people on asylum support in Bolton

Rank 18 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 33.48 per 10,000 puts Bolton in the 93rd percentile. That means this area carries more asylum seekers per head than 90% of the country. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2035. 30 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 1,037 people at £107 per person per day is about £40.5M a year.

What asylum costs Bolton

£23.4Mestimated hotel costs/year
£2.7Msubsistence payments/year
£1.2MLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 1,037 people on asylum support in Bolton(1.11% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Bolton: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

1,067
1,1087393690Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Mar 2018Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 2014736
Jun 2014755
Sept 2014784
Dec 2014843
Mar 2015909
Jun 2015931
Sept 2015992
Dec 20151,034
Mar 20161,020
Jun 20161,049
Sept 20161,059
Dec 20161,083
Mar 20171,054
Jun 20171,042
Sept 20171,038
Dec 20171,044
Mar 20181,108
Jun 20181,108
Sept 20181,081
Dec 20181,066
Mar 20191,072
Jun 20191,046
Sept 2019997
Dec 2019978
Mar 2020987
Jun 20201,006
Sept 2020996
Dec 2020963
Mar 2021918
Jun 2021869
Sept 2021809
Dec 2021835
Mar 2022818
Jun 2022848
Sept 2022794
Dec 2022781
Mar 2023752
Jun 2023962
Sept 2023993
Dec 2023928
Mar 20241,019
Jun 20241,042
Sept 20241,055
Dec 20241,096
Mar 20251,085
Jun 20251,097
Sept 20251,060
Dec 20251,067

Trend

+7Latest quarter change
+331Change across series
48Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation1,007
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only30
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
1,037
Homes for Ukraine
248
Afghan programme
155
Resettlement cumulative
0

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine248
Afghan programme155
Resettlement cumulative0

Population context

All pathways total1,440
Share of local population0.46%

Ethnic composition projection

Bolton: White British 68.8% (2021) to 26.9% (2051). White British minority by ~2035. 80% CI: 25.2, 30.1%.

Ethnic composition: Bolton

021426384% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 16% in 2061White Other 3% in 2061Asian 51% in 2061Black 17% in 2061Mixed 5% in 2061Other 8% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Bolton

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
79%
14%
2021
69%
20%
2031proj
56%
28%
2041proj
41%
36%
10%
2051proj
27%
44%
14%
2061proj
16%
51%
17%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Bolton ranges from45.5% to 52.9%by 2051. That is a 7.4pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 48.5% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 20.9% (2021) → 47.4% (2051). Christian 49.3% → 9.5%.

Religion: Bolton

517294254%Census 2021Christian 10% in 2051No religion 42% in 2051Muslim 47% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslim

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

16.9% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.54). 89.1% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Bolton

1231506988%Census 2021UK-born 52% in 2051Foreign-born 49% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Low foreign-born share with significant ethnic diversity suggests second/third-generation growth is the primary driver. Less sensitive to immigration policy changes.

Census 2021 mobility: 6.7% moved within UK, 0.8% arrived from abroad
white other10.8% internal, 2.7% international
other10.1% internal, 3.2% international
mixed8.7% internal, 1.1% international
black7.6% internal, 1.8% international
asian7% internal, 2.1% international
white british6.3% internal, 0.2% international

Why Bolton is changing

-10.7pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
0pp
Local migration
-4.3pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Bolton on UK Demographics →