Trend
+7 Latest quarter change
+331 Change across series
48 Official data points
Bolton
Kirith Entwistle
3 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Bolton.
1,059 people housed on asylum support in Bolton
Rank 22 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 34.15 per 10,000 puts Bolton in the 93rd percentile. That means this area carries more asylum seekers per head than 90% of the country. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2033. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £58M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Bolton
£20.8Mestimated hotel costs/year
£2.7Msubsistence payments/year
£1.3MLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 1,059 people on asylum support in Bolton (0.99% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Bolton: asylum numbers still rising
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 1,029
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 30
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 243
Afghan programme 155
Resettlement cumulative 0
Population context
All pathways total 1,457
Share of local population 0.47%
Ethnic composition projection
Bolton: WBI 68.8% (2021) → 19.5% (2051). White British minority by ~2033. 80% CI: 24.2–27.3%.
Ethnic composition: Bolton
White British White Other Asian Black Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Bolton
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Bolton ranges from 45.5% to 52.9% by 2051. That is a 7.4pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 48.5% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 20.9% (2021) → 47.4% (2051). Christian 49.3% → 9.5%.
Religion: Bolton
Christian No religion Muslim
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
16.9% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.54). 89.1% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Bolton
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
emerging diversity: Low foreign-born share with significant ethnic diversity suggests second/third-generation growth is the primary driver. Less sensitive to immigration policy changes.
Census 2021 mobility: 6.7% moved within UK, 0.8% arrived from abroad
white other 10.8% internal, 2.7% international
other 10.1% internal, 3.2% international
mixed 8.7% internal, 1.1% international
black 7.6% internal, 1.8% international
asian 7% internal, 2.1% international
white british 6.3% internal, 0.2% international
Why Bolton is changing
-10.7ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Bolton on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 57.7%
Mixed 63.5%
White Other 65.4%
Other 49.7%
Homeownership rate
White British 63.5%
Mixed 42.5%
White Other 40.3%
Other 25.1%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 27.1%
Mixed 33.6%
White Other 31%
Other 30%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 53,832 pupils. 51.2% White British. Schools are 17.5pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 51.2%
Asian 28.8%
Black 8.6%
Mixed 5.3%
White Other 3.4%
Other 2.7%
What this means
Schools are 18pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
48.8% Minority pupils now
67.8% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
47.7% Primary WBI
55.1% Secondary WBI
Accelerating diversification. Primary schools are significantly more diverse than secondary.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -1.66pp/year. Rapid diversification in young cohorts. The demographic wave is accelerating.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 55.8% vs school 51.2% (-4.6pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
1,059 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
34.15 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in North West by supported asylum.