Trend
-87 Latest quarter change
+1,158 Change across series
48 Official data points
Bradford
Imran Hussain
3 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Bradford.
1,266 people housed on asylum support in Bradford
Rank 14 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 22.46 per 10,000 puts Bradford in the 84th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2030. 233 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £69M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Bradford
£24.9Mestimated hotel costs/year
£3.2Msubsistence payments/year
£1.5MLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 1,266 people on asylum support in Bradford (1.18% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Bradford: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 996
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 37
Contingency accommodation 233
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 630
Afghan programme 540
Resettlement cumulative 833
Population context
All pathways total 2,436
Share of local population 0.43%
Ethnic composition projection
Bradford: WBI 56.7% (2021) → 30.4% (2051). White British minority by ~2030. 80% CI: 28.4–31.7%.
Ethnic composition: Bradford
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Bradford
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Bradford ranges from 36.9% to 40.8% by 2051. That is a 3.9pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 38.6% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 32.3% (2021) → 39.9% (2051). Christian 35.3% → 8.9%.
Religion: Bradford
Christian No religion Muslim
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
18.7% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.6). 87.6% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Bradford
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
emerging diversity: Low foreign-born share with significant ethnic diversity suggests second/third-generation growth is the primary driver. Less sensitive to immigration policy changes.
Census 2021 mobility: 7.3% moved within UK, 0.7% arrived from abroad
black 12.3% internal, 4.3% international
white other 12.6% internal, 2.2% international
other 9.8% internal, 3.6% international
mixed 10.1% internal, 0.6% international
white british 7.6% internal, 0.2% international
asian 5.3% internal, 1% international
Why Bradford is changing
-7.1ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Bradford on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 56.3%
Mixed 62.2%
White Other 66.8%
Other 48.2%
Homeownership rate
White British 64.8%
Mixed 37.6%
White Other 33.4%
Other 33.1%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 27.2%
Mixed 28.5%
White Other 30.5%
Other 29.8%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 98,006 pupils. 38% White British. Schools are 18.7pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
Asian 43.9%
White British 38%
Mixed 6.8%
White Other 5.5%
Black 3.7%
Other 2.1%
What this means
Schools are 19pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
62% Minority pupils now
63.9% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
38.1% Primary WBI
38.3% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -0.68pp/year. Gradual diversification in school-age population.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 43.1% vs school 38% (-5.1pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
1,266 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
22.46 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
233 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in Yorkshire and The Humber by supported asylum.