Trend
-52 Latest quarter change
+933 Change across series
48 Official data points
Brent
Dawn Butler
4 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Brent.
902 people housed on asylum support in Brent
Rank 26 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 25.55 per 10,000 puts Brent in the 86th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. 575 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £49M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Brent
£17.8Mestimated hotel costs/year
£2.3Msubsistence payments/year
£1.1MLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 902 people on asylum support in Brent (0.84% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Brent: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 160
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 167
Contingency accommodation 575
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 833
Afghan programme 150
Resettlement cumulative 54
Population context
All pathways total 1,885
Share of local population 0.53%
Ethnic composition projection
Brent: WBI 15.2% (2021) → 7.8% (2051). 80% CI: 5.1–6.3%.
Ethnic composition: Brent
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Brent
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Brent ranges from 10.2% to 11.0% by 2051. That is a 0.9pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 10.6% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 22.9% (2021) → 30.4% (2051). Christian 41.7% → 30.2%.
Religion: Brent
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
56.1% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.92). 66.3% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Brent
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
high immigration gateway: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.
Census 2021 mobility: 10.8% moved within UK, 1.7% arrived from abroad
white other 15.1% internal, 2.6% international
mixed 13% internal, 1.4% international
other 12.2% internal, 1.9% international
white british 12.5% internal, 0.7% international
asian 8.5% internal, 2% international
black 7.4% internal, 0.8% international
Why Brent is changing
-2.8ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Brent on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 61.7%
Mixed 67.2%
White Other 74.7%
Other 53.9%
Homeownership rate
White British 45.8%
Mixed 28.2%
White Other 32%
Other 26.5%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 40.3%
Mixed 41.8%
White Other 39.8%
Other 37%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 47,868 pupils. 10.2% White British.
Pupil ethnicity
Asian 32.7%
Black 17.4%
White Other 15.8%
Other 15.2%
White British 10.2%
Mixed 8.6%
What this means
School and population ethnic composition are closely aligned.
89.8% Minority pupils now
94.2% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
9.2% Primary WBI
11.4% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at +0.03pp/year. WBI share stable or increasing in schools.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 13.1% vs school 10.2% (-2.9pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
902 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
25.55 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
575 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in London by supported asylum.