Trend
-2 Latest quarter change
+458 Change across series
47 Official data points
Burnley
Oliver Ryan
455 people housed on asylum support in Burnley
Rank 69 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 45.85 per 10,000 puts Burnley in the 98th percentile. That means this area carries more asylum seekers per head than 90% of the country. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2045. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £25M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Burnley
£9.0Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.2Msubsistence payments/year
£546KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 455 people on asylum support in Burnley (0.43% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Burnley: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 451
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 4
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 100
Afghan programme 34
Resettlement cumulative 98
Population context
All pathways total 589
Share of local population 0.59%
Ethnic composition projection
Burnley: WBI 77.9% (2021) → 43.1% (2051). White British minority by ~2045. 80% CI: 46.4–50.8%.
Ethnic composition: Burnley
White British White Other Asian Mixed 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Burnley
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Burnley ranges from 40.6% to 58.3% by 2051. That is a 17.8pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 46.8% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 14.8% (2021) → 21.0% (2051). Christian 50.9% → 11.0%.
Religion: Burnley
Christian No religion Muslim
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
12.7% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.42). 91% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Burnley
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 7.9% moved within UK, 0.9% arrived from abroad
black 15.7% internal, 7.4% international
other 15.8% internal, 7.1% international
white other 14.9% internal, 7.9% international
mixed 10.8% internal, 0.7% international
asian 6.1% internal, 2.4% international
white british 7.6% internal, 0.2% international
Why Burnley is changing
-7.6ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Burnley on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 55.7%
Mixed 61.7%
White Other 76.6%
Other 58%
Homeownership rate
White British 61.9%
Mixed 33.9%
White Other 30.9%
Other 32.9%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 24.4%
Mixed 25%
White Other 23.5%
Other 23.4%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
Crime
112.4 crimes per 1,000 residents (88th percentile). Down 1.8% year-on-year.
Crime breakdown
Key metrics
112.4 Per 1,000 residents
187 Hate crimes
41.2 Violent crime /1,000
Source
ONS recorded crime, Year ending March 2024. Correlation with asylum dispersal does not imply causation.
SEND pressure
EHCP rate: 398 per 10,000 pupils (40th percentile). 5-year growth: +38.7%.
Academic year 2023/24
Primary need types
Key metrics
1,247 Total EHCPs
29.8% ASD as primary need
Source
DfE SEN2 return, Academic year 2023/24. Rising EHCPs reflect multiple factors, not solely population change.
Social care
Adult social care: £578 per capita (76th percentile).
£578 Gross spend per capita
398 Residential per 10k 65+
18.4 Quality of life (ASCOF 1A)
842 Delayed transfer days
Source
NHS Digital SALT/ASCOF, 2023/24.
Pressure index
Combined score across 5 domains: 77.9/100.
High pressure
45.9 Asylum rate /10k
-0.76pp WB annual change
112.4 Crime /1,000
+38.7% SEND 5yr growth
£578 ASC /capita
Methodology
Each domain converted to percentile rank (0-100). Composite = unweighted mean. Measures correlation, not causation.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
455 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
45.85 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North West by supported asylum.