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North West

Burnley

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Oliver Ryan
Oliver RyanLabour (Co-op) · Burnley
471 people on asylum support in Burnley

Rank 65 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 46.66 per 10,000 puts Burnley in the 99th percentile. That means this area carries more asylum seekers per head than 90% of the country. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2050. 5 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 471 people at £107 per person per day is about £18.4M a year.

What asylum costs Burnley

£10.6Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.2Msubsistence payments/year
£565KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 471 people on asylum support in Burnley(0.50% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Burnley: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

461
4753171580Jun 2014Dec 2025Peak Jun 2025Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Jun 20143
Sept 20144
Dec 20144
Mar 20154
Jun 20156
Sept 20156
Dec 20154
Mar 201618
Jun 201633
Sept 201629
Dec 201635
Mar 201738
Jun 201736
Sept 201735
Dec 201739
Mar 201854
Jun 201850
Sept 201869
Dec 201854
Mar 201960
Jun 201960
Sept 201962
Dec 201956
Mar 202061
Jun 202069
Sept 202069
Dec 202066
Mar 202184
Jun 202183
Sept 202192
Dec 2021138
Mar 2022178
Jun 2022201
Sept 2022230
Dec 2022237
Mar 2023245
Jun 2023436
Sept 2023420
Dec 2023396
Mar 2024431
Jun 2024462
Sept 2024460
Dec 2024436
Mar 2025464
Jun 2025475
Sept 2025463
Dec 2025461

Trend

-2Latest quarter change
+458Change across series
47Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation466
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only5
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
471
Homes for Ukraine
100
Afghan programme
34
Resettlement cumulative
98

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine100
Afghan programme34
Resettlement cumulative98

Population context

All pathways total605
Share of local population0.6%

Ethnic composition projection

Burnley: White British 77.9% (2021) to 49.2% (2051). White British minority by ~2050. 80% CI: 47.1, 53.6%.

Ethnic composition: Burnley

023456891% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 39% in 2061White Other 9% in 2061Asian 39% in 2061Mixed 7% in 2061Other 6% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Burnley

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
86%
11%
2021
78%
15%
2031proj
70%
20%
2041proj
60%
26%
2051proj
49%
9%
33%
2061proj
39%
9%
39%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Burnley ranges from40.6% to 58.3%by 2051. That is a 17.8pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 46.8% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 14.8% (2021) → 21.0% (2051). Christian 50.9% → 11.0%.

Religion: Burnley

623395672%Census 2021Christian 11% in 2051No religion 67% in 2051Muslim 21% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslim

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

12.7% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.42). 91% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Burnley

829507192%Census 2021UK-born 46% in 2051Foreign-born 54% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 7.9% moved within UK, 0.9% arrived from abroad
black15.7% internal, 7.4% international
other15.8% internal, 7.1% international
white other14.9% internal, 7.9% international
mixed10.8% internal, 0.7% international
asian6.1% internal, 2.4% international
white british7.6% internal, 0.2% international

Why Burnley is changing

-7.6pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.4pp
Local migration
-0.8pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Burnley on UK Demographics →