16 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Bury.
Rank 84 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 18.47 per 10,000 puts Bury in the 79th percentile. That means this area carries more asylum seekers per head than 79% of the country. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2049. 9 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 368 people at £107 per person per day is about £14.4M a year.
Estimates based on 368 people on asylum support in Bury(0.39% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.
368 people were receiving Home Office asylum support in Bury at 30 June 2026, the most recent quarter published. That ranks 84th of 361 UK local authorities. It counts people on support at that date, which is not the number who claimed asylum there and not the number waiting for a decision.
18.47 per 10,000 residents, which places Bury in the 79th percentile of UK local authorities. It carries more people on asylum support per head than 79% of the country. Rate is the fair comparison between areas, because a large city carries more people than a small district at the same pressure per head.
Not on the published figures. Bury recorded nobody in contingency accommodation at 30 June 2026, which is the category that includes hotels. The 368 people on asylum support there are recorded in dispersal housing or on subsistence-only support.
Serco holds the Home Office asylum accommodation contract for the region Bury sits in, under the Asylum Accommodation and Support Contracts. The contract covers a whole region rather than a single council, and the Home Office does not publish a council-by-council split of which properties sit under it.
No. 9 of the 368 on support in Bury, about 2%, receive subsistence only: a cash payment with no accommodation, usually because they are living with friends or family. The rest are in Home Office accommodation, which covers dispersal housing and hotels.
Quarter-end stock series to Jun 2026. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| Mar 2014 | 297 |
| Jun 2014 | 306 |
| Sept 2014 | 312 |
| Dec 2014 | 362 |
| Mar 2015 | 383 |
| Jun 2015 | 381 |
| Sept 2015 | 414 |
| Dec 2015 | 458 |
| Mar 2016 | 478 |
| Jun 2016 | 485 |
| Sept 2016 | 512 |
| Dec 2016 | 503 |
| Mar 2017 | 506 |
| Jun 2017 | 497 |
| Sept 2017 | 484 |
| Dec 2017 | 475 |
| Mar 2018 | 506 |
| Jun 2018 | 513 |
| Sept 2018 | 508 |
| Dec 2018 | 521 |
| Mar 2019 | 518 |
| Jun 2019 | 522 |
| Sept 2019 | 486 |
| Dec 2019 | 435 |
| Mar 2020 | 423 |
| Jun 2020 | 462 |
| Sept 2020 | 455 |
| Dec 2020 | 441 |
| Mar 2021 | 421 |
| Jun 2021 | 398 |
| Sept 2021 | 399 |
| Dec 2021 | 406 |
| Mar 2022 | 425 |
| Jun 2022 | 428 |
| Sept 2022 | 423 |
| Dec 2022 | 408 |
| Mar 2023 | 397 |
| Jun 2023 | 456 |
| Sept 2023 | 430 |
| Dec 2023 | 415 |
| Mar 2024 | 428 |
| Jun 2024 | 449 |
| Sept 2024 | 464 |
| Dec 2024 | 454 |
| Mar 2025 | 444 |
| Jun 2025 | 423 |
| Sept 2025 | 391 |
| Dec 2025 | 404 |
| Mar 2026 | 389 |
| Jun 2026 | 368 |
Bury: White British 78.2% (2021) to 47.4% (2051). White British minority by ~2049. 80% CI: 46, 51.4%.
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Under different assumptions, White British share in Bury ranges from50.8% to 63.2%by 2051. That is a 12.4pp spread.
Muslim 10.4% (2021) → 22.4% (2051). Christian 51.4% → 12.1%.
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
12.1% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.46). 93.5% main language English.
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
DfE School Census 2024/25: 28,856 pupils. 65.1% White British. Schools are 13.1pp more diverse than the general population.
Schools are 13pp more diverse than the general population (schools show the future).
Demographic pipeline
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -1.11pp/year. Rapid diversification in young cohorts. The demographic wave is accelerating.
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Compared with Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 69.8% vs school 65.1% (-4.7pp gap).
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
6.5% of residents aged 3 and over have a main language other than English (Census 2021, TS029), below the 15% line this site uses to flag language demand.
foreign-born growth to 2051
The foreign-born share is projected to rise by 40.3pp between 2021 and 2051 (Census 2021 TS004 country of birth, projected by the Hamilton-Perry method), above the 15pp line this site uses to flag housing demand.
EAL growth
The minority pupil share exceeds the minority resident share by 13.1pp (DfE School Census 2024/25 against Census 2021), above the 10pp line this site uses to flag EAL demand.
7.1% of pupils have an EHC plan, 2025/26 academic year. Five-year growth: +72.0% (66th percentile of councils).
DfE, Special educational needs in England, academic year 2025/26, published 11 June 2026, Explore Education Statistics: pupils in all schools by type of SEN provision, and pupils with an EHC plan by primary type of need. SEND is run by upper-tier councils, so district pages show their county. Figures count pupils on the January school census who have an EHC plan; plans held by children under school age, young people in further education and those not in school are not included. The autism figure is the share of pupils with an EHC plan whose primary need is autism, not a prevalence in the population. Rising numbers may reflect identification, diagnosis and parental awareness as well as need.
£715 gross spend per resident aged 18 and over, 2024-25 (82nd percentile of councils).
Department of Health and Social Care, Adult social care finance report, England: 2024 to 2025, Table 14; Department of Health and Social Care, Adult social care activity report, England: 2024 to 2025, Table 34; Office for National Statistics, Mid-Year Population Estimates, England and Wales, June 2025, for the per-head rates. Adult social care is run by upper tier councils (counties, unitaries, metropolitan districts and London boroughs), so a district shows its county's figures. Spend reflects age structure, deprivation and unpaid care, so differences between councils are not a measure of efficiency. Activity figures are official statistics in development.
Combined score across 4 domains: 74.2/100.
Each domain is converted to a percentile rank from 0 to 100 against every authority holding it, and the score is their unweighted mean. Asylum support: Home Office local authority data. Demographic change: Census 2011 and 2021. SEND and adult social care: DfE and DHSC figures for the council that runs the service. The four domains are weighted equally. It measures pressures on councils that occur together, not causes.
National distribution.
Per 10,000 residents.
Hotel and contingency placements.
Top 6 in North West by supported asylum.