Trend
+13 Latest quarter change
+107 Change across series
48 Official data points
Bury
Laura Kyrke-Smith
16 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Bury.
389 people housed on asylum support in Bury
Rank 82 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 19.56 per 10,000 puts Bury in the 80th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2046. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £21M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Bury
£7.7Mestimated hotel costs/year
£995Ksubsistence payments/year
£467KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 389 people on asylum support in Bury (0.36% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Bury: asylum numbers still rising
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 378
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 11
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 281
Afghan programme 57
Resettlement cumulative 13
Population context
All pathways total 727
Share of local population 0.37%
Ethnic composition projection
Bury: WBI 78.2% (2021) → 42.0% (2051). White British minority by ~2046. 80% CI: 43.9–47.7%.
Ethnic composition: Bury
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Bury
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Bury ranges from 50.8% to 63.2% by 2051. That is a 12.4pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 55.7% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 10.4% (2021) → 22.4% (2051). Christian 51.4% → 12.1%.
Religion: Bury
Christian No religion Muslim
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
12.1% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.46). 93.5% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Bury
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 6.7% moved within UK, 0.5% arrived from abroad
black 10.5% internal, 2.5% international
white other 9.5% internal, 1.5% international
other 9% internal, 2% international
mixed 9.5% internal, 0.8% international
asian 7.4% internal, 1.7% international
white british 6.1% internal, 0.2% international
Why Bury is changing
-7.1ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Bury on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 59.8%
Mixed 67.8%
White Other 68.4%
Other 59%
Homeownership rate
White British 68.5%
Mixed 47.8%
White Other 56.5%
Other 50.8%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 31.6%
Mixed 39.8%
White Other 40.4%
Other 41.2%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 28,856 pupils. 65.1% White British. Schools are 13.1pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 65.1%
Asian 18.2%
Mixed 6.2%
Black 4.6%
White Other 3.8%
Other 2.1%
What this means
Schools are 13pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
34.9% Minority pupils now
50.7% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
65.4% Primary WBI
64.5% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -1.11pp/year. Rapid diversification in young cohorts. The demographic wave is accelerating.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 69.8% vs school 65.1% (-4.7pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
389 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
19.56 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North West by supported asylum.