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North West

Bury

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Laura Kyrke-Smith
Laura Kyrke-SmithLabour · Aylesbury

16 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Bury.

368 people on asylum support in Bury

Rank 84 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 18.47 per 10,000 puts Bury in the 79th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2049. 9 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 368 people at £107 per person per day is about £14.4M a year.

What asylum costs Bury

£8.3Mestimated hotel costs/year
£941Ksubsistence payments/year
£442KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 368 people on asylum support in Bury(0.39% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Bury: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

404
5223481740Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Jun 2019Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 2014297
Jun 2014306
Sept 2014312
Dec 2014362
Mar 2015383
Jun 2015381
Sept 2015414
Dec 2015458
Mar 2016478
Jun 2016485
Sept 2016512
Dec 2016503
Mar 2017506
Jun 2017497
Sept 2017484
Dec 2017475
Mar 2018506
Jun 2018513
Sept 2018508
Dec 2018521
Mar 2019518
Jun 2019522
Sept 2019486
Dec 2019435
Mar 2020423
Jun 2020462
Sept 2020455
Dec 2020441
Mar 2021421
Jun 2021398
Sept 2021399
Dec 2021406
Mar 2022425
Jun 2022428
Sept 2022423
Dec 2022408
Mar 2023397
Jun 2023456
Sept 2023430
Dec 2023415
Mar 2024428
Jun 2024449
Sept 2024464
Dec 2024454
Mar 2025444
Jun 2025423
Sept 2025391
Dec 2025404

Trend

+13Latest quarter change
+107Change across series
48Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation359
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only9
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
368
Homes for Ukraine
286
Afghan programme
57
Resettlement cumulative
13

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine286
Afghan programme57
Resettlement cumulative13

Population context

All pathways total711
Share of local population0.36%

Ethnic composition projection

Bury: White British 78.2% (2021) to 47.4% (2051). White British minority by ~2049. 80% CI: 46, 51.4%.

Ethnic composition: Bury

023456890% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 35% in 2061White Other 6% in 2061Asian 31% in 2061Black 6% in 2061Mixed 11% in 2061Other 12% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Bury

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
85%
2021
78%
11%
2031proj
70%
15%
2041proj
59%
20%
2051proj
47%
26%
8%
8%
2061proj
35%
31%
11%
12%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Bury ranges from50.8% to 63.2%by 2051. That is a 12.4pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 55.7% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 10.4% (2021) → 22.4% (2051). Christian 51.4% → 12.1%.

Religion: Bury

521365166%Census 2021Christian 12% in 2051No religion 61% in 2051Muslim 22% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslim

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

12.1% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.46). 93.5% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Bury

729507193%Census 2021UK-born 48% in 2051Foreign-born 52% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 6.7% moved within UK, 0.5% arrived from abroad
black10.5% internal, 2.5% international
white other9.5% internal, 1.5% international
other9% internal, 2% international
mixed9.5% internal, 0.8% international
asian7.4% internal, 1.7% international
white british6.1% internal, 0.2% international

Why Bury is changing

-7.1pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.4pp
Local migration
-0.4pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Bury on UK Demographics →