Trend
-57 Latest quarter change
+439 Change across series
48 Official data points
Calderdale
509 people housed on asylum support in Calderdale
Rank 59 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 24.13 per 10,000 puts Calderdale in the 86th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. 26 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £28M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Calderdale
£10.0Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.3Msubsistence payments/year
£611KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 509 people on asylum support in Calderdale (0.48% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Calderdale: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 474
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 9
Contingency accommodation 26
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 287
Afghan programme 79
Resettlement cumulative 115
Population context
All pathways total 875
Share of local population 0.41%
Ethnic composition projection
Calderdale: WBI 82.8% (2021) → 68.8% (2051). 80% CI: 61.2–64.6%.
Ethnic composition: Calderdale
White British White Other Asian Mixed 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Calderdale
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Calderdale ranges from 55.2% to 68.6% by 2051. That is a 13.3pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 60.5% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 10.1% (2021) → 11.6% (2051). Christian 43.8% → 9.0%.
Religion: Calderdale
Christian No religion Muslim
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
8.5% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.37). 95.4% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Calderdale
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 7.7% moved within UK, 0.4% arrived from abroad
black 13.7% internal, 3.8% international
other 11.2% internal, 3.7% international
mixed 12.6% internal, 0.7% international
white other 10.8% internal, 1.8% international
white british 7.6% internal, 0.2% international
asian 5.7% internal, 0.9% international
Why Calderdale is changing
-3.9ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Calderdale on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 58.9%
Mixed 68.1%
White Other 65.3%
Other 56.4%
Homeownership rate
White British 66%
Mixed 45%
White Other 49.3%
Other 38.5%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 30.4%
Mixed 34.9%
White Other 39.4%
Other 35.3%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 35,026 pupils. 69.6% White British. Schools are 13.2pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 69.6%
Asian 19.5%
Mixed 5%
White Other 3.2%
Black 1.7%
Other 0.9%
What this means
Schools are 13pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
30.4% Minority pupils now
34.4% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
72.2% Primary WBI
66.8% Secondary WBI
Slowing diversification. Primary schools are less diverse than secondary.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -0.39pp/year. Gradual diversification in school-age population.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 74.8% vs school 69.6% (-5.2pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
509 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
24.13 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
26 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in Yorkshire and The Humber by supported asylum.