Trend
-146 Latest quarter change
+464 Change across series
35 Official data points
Cheshire East
Andrew Cooper
385 people housed on asylum support in Cheshire East
Rank 83 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 9.14 per 10,000 puts Cheshire East in the 59th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. 60 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £21M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Cheshire East
£7.6Mestimated hotel costs/year
£985Ksubsistence payments/year
£462KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 385 people on asylum support in Cheshire East (0.36% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Cheshire East: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 315
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 10
Contingency accommodation 60
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 883
Afghan programme 63
Resettlement cumulative 42
Population context
All pathways total 1,331
Share of local population 0.32%
Ethnic composition projection
Cheshire East: WBI 89.6% (2021) → 72.4% (2051). 80% CI: 69.8–73.4%.
Ethnic composition: Cheshire East
White British White Other Asian Mixed 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Cheshire East
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Cheshire East ranges from 70.3% to 80.1% by 2051. That is a 9.8pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 74.3% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 1.1% (2021) → 1.9% (2051). Christian 57.5% → 12.9%.
Religion: Cheshire East
Christian No religion
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
8.3% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.27). 95.8% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Cheshire East
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 9.4% moved within UK, 0.7% arrived from abroad
black 17.9% internal, 7.1% international
asian 13.5% internal, 5.9% international
other 14.1% internal, 4.5% international
white other 13% internal, 3.3% international
mixed 13.2% internal, 1.1% international
white british 8.9% internal, 0.3% international
Why Cheshire East is changing
-3.9ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Cheshire East on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 59.7%
Mixed 70.5%
White Other 77.1%
Other 69.2%
Homeownership rate
White British 74.6%
Mixed 54.2%
White Other 46.1%
Other 43.4%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 37.3%
Mixed 40.8%
White Other 41.6%
Other 40.6%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 56,327 pupils. 81.9% White British. Schools are 7.7pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 81.9%
White Other 5.9%
Mixed 4.8%
Asian 4.6%
Black 2.1%
Other 0.8%
What this means
Schools are 8pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
18.1% Minority pupils now
32% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
80.5% Primary WBI
83.6% Secondary WBI
Accelerating diversification. Primary schools are significantly more diverse than secondary.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -0.84pp/year. Gradual diversification in school-age population.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 87% vs school 81.9% (-5.1pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
385 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
9.14 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
60 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North West by supported asylum.