Trend
+1 Latest quarter change
+657 Change across series
43 Official data points
Cheshire West and Chester
Samantha Dixon
11 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Cheshire West and Chester.
659 people housed on asylum support in Cheshire West and Chester
Rank 43 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 17.73 per 10,000 puts Cheshire West and Chester in the 75th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £36M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Cheshire West and Chester
£13.0Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.7Msubsistence payments/year
£791KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 659 people on asylum support in Cheshire West and Chester (0.62% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Cheshire West and Chester: asylum numbers still rising
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 657
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 2
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 840
Afghan programme 181
Resettlement cumulative 102
Population context
All pathways total 1,680
Share of local population 0.45%
Ethnic composition projection
Cheshire West and Chester: WBI 91.2% (2021) → 76.1% (2051). 80% CI: 75.2–78.7%.
Ethnic composition: Cheshire West and Chester
White British White Other Asian Mixed 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Cheshire West and Chester
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Cheshire West and Chester ranges from 71.7% to 82.4% by 2051. That is a 10.7pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 76.1% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 1.0% (2021) → 3.0% (2051). Christian 57.7% → 11.2%.
Religion: Cheshire West and Chester
Christian No religion
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
7.3% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.23). 96.7% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Cheshire West and Chester
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 8.6% moved within UK, 0.6% arrived from abroad
black 16% internal, 13.3% international
asian 12.4% internal, 5.6% international
other 11.4% internal, 5.3% international
mixed 13.1% internal, 1.8% international
white other 11.8% internal, 2.8% international
white british 8.2% internal, 0.3% international
Why Cheshire West and Chester is changing
-3.5ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Cheshire West and Chester on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 59.2%
Mixed 69.5%
White Other 74.1%
Other 65.3%
Homeownership rate
White British 70.7%
Mixed 53.3%
White Other 49.8%
Other 42.5%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 35.1%
Mixed 40.9%
White Other 46.6%
Other 43.1%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 50,649 pupils. 85.4% White British. Schools are 5.8pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 85.4%
White Other 4.7%
Mixed 3.8%
Asian 3.7%
Black 1.6%
Other 0.8%
What this means
Schools are 6pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
14.6% Minority pupils now
27.7% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
84.2% Primary WBI
86.6% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -0.76pp/year. Gradual diversification in school-age population.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 89% vs school 85.4% (-3.6pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
659 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
17.73 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North West by supported asylum.