Trend
+2 Latest quarter change
+226 Change across series
39 Official data points
Chorley
Sir Lindsay Hoyle
242 people housed on asylum support in Chorley
Rank 125 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 20.03 per 10,000 puts Chorley in the 80th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £13M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Chorley
£4.8Mestimated hotel costs/year
£619Ksubsistence payments/year
£290KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 242 people on asylum support in Chorley (0.23% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Chorley: asylum numbers still rising
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 239
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 3
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 180
Afghan programme 11
Resettlement cumulative 107
Population context
All pathways total 433
Share of local population 0.36%
Ethnic composition projection
Chorley: WBI 92.9% (2021) → 88.1% (2051). 80% CI: 83–85.2%.
Ethnic composition: Chorley
White British White Other Mixed 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Chorley
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Chorley ranges from 55.8% to 78.5% by 2051. That is a 22.8pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 63.9% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 1.5% (2021) → 1.5% (2051). Christian 64.8% → 15.3%.
Religion: Chorley
Christian No religion
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
5% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.2). 97.8% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Chorley
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 7.8% moved within UK, 0.3% arrived from abroad
white other 11.9% internal, 1.9% international
black 9.9% internal, 3.7% international
other 11.4% internal, 1.4% international
mixed 12.5% internal, 0.1% international
asian 8.8% internal, 2.3% international
white british 7.5% internal, 0.2% international
Why Chorley is changing
-2.2ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Chorley on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 61.4%
Mixed 67.8%
White Other 72.5%
Other 60.1%
Homeownership rate
White British 73.7%
Mixed 51.6%
White Other 52.1%
Other 50.9%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 33.6%
Mixed 37.5%
White Other 39.8%
Other 42.2%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
Crime
62.1 crimes per 1,000 residents (20th percentile). Up 1.2% year-on-year.
Crime breakdown
Key metrics
62.1 Per 1,000 residents
67 Hate crimes
22.8 Violent crime /1,000
Source
ONS recorded crime, Year ending March 2024. Correlation with asylum dispersal does not imply causation.
SEND pressure
EHCP rate: 342 per 10,000 pupils (24th percentile). 5-year growth: +35.2%.
Academic year 2023/24
Primary need types
Key metrics
1,412 Total EHCPs
33.1% ASD as primary need
Source
DfE SEN2 return, Academic year 2023/24. Rising EHCPs reflect multiple factors, not solely population change.
Social care
Adult social care: £482 per capita (20th percentile).
£482 Gross spend per capita
342 Residential per 10k 65+
19.4 Quality of life (ASCOF 1A)
624 Delayed transfer days
Source
NHS Digital SALT/ASCOF, 2023/24.
Pressure index
Combined score across 5 domains: 39.2/100.
20.0 Asylum rate /10k
-0.21pp WB annual change
62.1 Crime /1,000
+35.2% SEND 5yr growth
£482 ASC /capita
Methodology
Each domain converted to percentile rank (0-100). Composite = unweighted mean. Measures correlation, not causation.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
242 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
20.03 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North West by supported asylum.