Trend
+213 Latest quarter change
+1,327 Change across series
48 Official data points
Croydon
Natasha Irons
4 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Croydon.
974 people housed on asylum support in Croydon
Rank 25 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 23.79 per 10,000 puts Croydon in the 86th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. 581 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £53M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Croydon
£19.2Mestimated hotel costs/year
£2.5Msubsistence payments/year
£1.2MLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 974 people on asylum support in Croydon (0.91% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Croydon: asylum numbers still rising
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 140
Initial accommodation 210
Subsistence only 43
Contingency accommodation 581
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 1,166
Afghan programme 31
Resettlement cumulative 5
Population context
All pathways total 2,171
Share of local population 0.53%
Ethnic composition projection
Croydon: WBI 37.4% (2021) → 11.0% (2051). 80% CI: 11.2–12.8%.
Ethnic composition: Croydon
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Croydon
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Croydon ranges from 23.4% to 25.8% by 2051. That is a 2.5pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 24.4% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 11.2% (2021) → 18.5% (2051). Christian 52.5% → 26.7%.
Religion: Croydon
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
34.9% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.88). 84% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Croydon
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
high immigration gateway: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.
Census 2021 mobility: 8.5% moved within UK, 0.9% arrived from abroad
white other 12.1% internal, 1.7% international
other 10% internal, 2% international
mixed 9.9% internal, 0.6% international
asian 8.5% internal, 1.8% international
black 8.6% internal, 0.8% international
white british 6.9% internal, 0.3% international
Why Croydon is changing
-9.8ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Croydon on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 63.9%
Mixed 69.2%
White Other 76.9%
Other 63.9%
Homeownership rate
White British 59.2%
Mixed 44.5%
White Other 43.8%
Other 41.8%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 40.9%
Mixed 38.1%
White Other 43.7%
Other 39.1%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 56,112 pupils. 22.8% White British. Schools are 14.6pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
Black 28.6%
White British 22.8%
Asian 19%
Mixed 16.6%
White Other 9.9%
Other 3%
What this means
Schools are 15pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
77.2% Minority pupils now
89.5% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
23% Primary WBI
22.8% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -0.57pp/year. Gradual diversification in school-age population.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 27.7% vs school 22.8% (-4.9pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
974 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
23.79 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
581 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in London by supported asylum.