Trend
-7 Latest quarter change
+454 Change across series
48 Official data points
Doncaster
Sally Jameson
3 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Doncaster.
561 people housed on asylum support in Doncaster
Rank 56 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 17.54 per 10,000 puts Doncaster in the 75th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2054. 74 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £31M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Doncaster
£11.0Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.4Msubsistence payments/year
£673KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 561 people on asylum support in Doncaster (0.52% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Doncaster: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 473
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 14
Contingency accommodation 74
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 369
Afghan programme 288
Resettlement cumulative 23
Population context
All pathways total 1,218
Share of local population 0.38%
Ethnic composition projection
Doncaster: WBI 86.6% (2021) → 54.5% (2051). White British minority by ~2054. 80% CI: 51.7–56.5%.
Ethnic composition: Doncaster
White British White Other Asian Black Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Doncaster
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Doncaster ranges from 64.6% to 75.1% by 2051. That is a 10.6pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 68.9% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 2.4% (2021) → 2.7% (2051). Christian 53.8% → 11.2%.
Religion: Doncaster
Christian No religion
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
10.4% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.32). 92.8% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Doncaster
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 7.9% moved within UK, 0.5% arrived from abroad
white other 14.6% internal, 3.5% international
black 12.2% internal, 1.8% international
other 10.5% internal, 3.1% international
mixed 11.4% internal, 0.7% international
asian 8.7% internal, 1.9% international
white british 7.2% internal, 0.1% international
Why Doncaster is changing
-5.2ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Doncaster on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 56.8%
Mixed 63.5%
White Other 78.7%
Other 53.1%
Homeownership rate
White British 65.8%
Mixed 49.6%
White Other 32.7%
Other 28.7%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 22.4%
Mixed 28.4%
White Other 26.4%
Other 22.4%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 47,978 pupils. 76.4% White British. Schools are 10.2pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 76.4%
White Other 9%
Asian 5%
Black 4.1%
Mixed 4.1%
Other 1.5%
What this means
Schools are 10pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
23.6% Minority pupils now
42.4% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
75% Primary WBI
78.1% Secondary WBI
Accelerating diversification. Primary schools are significantly more diverse than secondary.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -1.07pp/year. Rapid diversification in young cohorts. The demographic wave is accelerating.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 83.5% vs school 76.4% (-7.1pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
Crime
108.7 crimes per 1,000 residents (84th percentile). Down 2.8% year-on-year.
Crime breakdown
Key metrics
108.7 Per 1,000 residents
423 Hate crimes
39.4 Violent crime /1,000
Source
ONS recorded crime, Year ending March 2024. Correlation with asylum dispersal does not imply causation.
SEND pressure
EHCP rate: 424 per 10,000 pupils (84th percentile). 5-year growth: +44.8%.
Academic year 2023/24 Rapid growth
Primary need types
Key metrics
4,218 Total EHCPs
30.4% ASD as primary need
Source
DfE SEN2 return, Academic year 2023/24. Rising EHCPs reflect multiple factors, not solely population change.
Social care
Adult social care: £598 per capita (84th percentile).
£598 Gross spend per capita
412 Residential per 10k 65+
18.2 Quality of life (ASCOF 1A)
2,418 Delayed transfer days
Source
NHS Digital SALT/ASCOF, 2023/24.
Pressure index
Combined score across 5 domains: 81.2/100.
High pressure
17.5 Asylum rate /10k
-0.52pp WB annual change
108.7 Crime /1,000
+44.8% SEND 5yr growth
£598 ASC /capita
Methodology
Each domain converted to percentile rank (0-100). Composite = unweighted mean. Measures correlation, not causation.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
561 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
17.54 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
74 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in Yorkshire and The Humber by supported asylum.