Trend
+62 Latest quarter change
+1,137 Change across series
48 Official data points
Ealing
Dr Rupa Huq
3 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Ealing.
1,163 people housed on asylum support in Ealing
Rank 17 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 30.13 per 10,000 puts Ealing in the 90th percentile. That means this area carries more asylum seekers per head than 90% of the country. 388 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £64M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Ealing
£22.9Mestimated hotel costs/year
£3.0Msubsistence payments/year
£1.4MLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 1,163 people on asylum support in Ealing (1.09% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Ealing: asylum numbers still rising
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 632
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 143
Contingency accommodation 388
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 1,766
Afghan programme 260
Resettlement cumulative 74
Population context
All pathways total 3,189
Share of local population 0.83%
Ethnic composition projection
Ealing: WBI 24.3% (2021) → 9.1% (2051). 80% CI: 7.1–8.4%.
Ethnic composition: Ealing
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Ealing
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Ealing ranges from 15.4% to 16.9% by 2051. That is a 1.5pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 16.1% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 20.1% (2021) → 28.7% (2051). Christian 40.6% → 22.0%.
Religion: Ealing
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu Sikh
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
50.8% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.92). 69.1% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Ealing
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
high immigration gateway: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.
Census 2021 mobility: 10% moved within UK, 1.7% arrived from abroad
white other 14% internal, 2.4% international
mixed 11.3% internal, 1.4% international
other 10.5% internal, 2.2% international
asian 8.1% internal, 2.3% international
white british 9.6% internal, 0.5% international
black 7.7% internal, 0.9% international
Why Ealing is changing
-6.1ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Ealing on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 61.9%
Mixed 67.4%
White Other 76.7%
Other 54.7%
Homeownership rate
White British 53.7%
Mixed 35.6%
White Other 38.8%
Other 36.1%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 43.4%
Mixed 45.3%
White Other 48.6%
Other 41.2%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 53,831 pupils. 12.9% White British. Schools are 11.4pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
Asian 31%
Other 18.4%
White Other 14.7%
Black 12.9%
White British 12.9%
Mixed 10%
What this means
Schools are 11pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
87.1% Minority pupils now
90.3% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
12.5% Primary WBI
13.6% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -0.24pp/year. Gradual diversification in school-age population.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 20.4% vs school 12.9% (-7.5pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
1,163 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
30.13 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
388 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in London by supported asylum.