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Ealing

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Dr Rupa Huq
Dr Rupa HuqLabour · Ealing Central and Acton

3 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Ealing.

1,073 people on asylum support in Ealing

Rank 17 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 27.72 per 10,000 puts Ealing in the 88th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. 158 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. 298 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). Accommodation and support for 1,073 people at £107 per person per day is about £41.9M a year.

What asylum costs Ealing

£24.2Mestimated hotel costs/year
£2.7Msubsistence payments/year
£1.3MLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 1,073 people on asylum support in Ealing(1.15% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Ealing: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

1,249
1,4429614810Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Mar 2025Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 2014112
Jun 2014128
Sept 2014141
Dec 2014160
Mar 2015167
Jun 2015168
Sept 2015166
Dec 2015135
Mar 2016166
Jun 2016154
Sept 2016202
Dec 2016219
Mar 2017234
Jun 2017231
Sept 2017269
Dec 2017265
Mar 2018320
Jun 2018354
Sept 2018377
Dec 2018451
Mar 2019503
Jun 2019560
Sept 2019550
Dec 2019522
Mar 2020525
Jun 2020542
Sept 2020576
Dec 2020556
Mar 2021516
Jun 2021533
Sept 2021526
Dec 2021607
Mar 2022510
Jun 2022552
Sept 2022525
Dec 20221,071
Mar 20231,127
Jun 20231,065
Sept 20231,162
Dec 2023999
Mar 20241,152
Jun 20241,111
Sept 20241,151
Dec 20241,286
Mar 20251,442
Jun 20251,179
Sept 20251,187
Dec 20251,249

Trend

+62Latest quarter change
+1,137Change across series
48Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation617
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only158
Contingency accommodation298

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
1,073
Homes for Ukraine
1,826
Afghan programme
266
Resettlement cumulative
74

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine1,826
Afghan programme266
Resettlement cumulative74

Population context

All pathways total3,165
Share of local population0.82%

Ethnic composition projection

Shown to 2051 rather than 2061. Past that point the model puts a residual Census category above a quarter of the population and several times its 2021 share, which is unconstrained compounding rather than a forecast, so those years are withheld.

Ealing: White British 24.3% (2021) to 10.6% (2051). 80% CI: 9.6, 12.2%.

Ethnic composition: Ealing

09182735% of populationCensus 2021White British 11% in 2051White Other 13% in 2051Asian 27% in 2051Black 11% in 2051Mixed 9% in 2051Other 30% in 205120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Ealing

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
30%
19%
30%
13%
2021
24%
19%
30%
11%
11%
2031proj
19%
17%
30%
11%
16%
2041proj
14%
15%
29%
11%
23%
2051proj
11%
13%
27%
11%
9%
30%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Ealing ranges from15.4% to 16.9%by 2051. That is a 1.5pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 16.1% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 20.1% (2021) → 28.7% (2051). Christian 40.6% → 22.0%.

Religion: Ealing

011233446%Census 2021Christian 22% in 2051No religion 35% in 2051Muslim 29% in 2051Hindu 5% in 2051Sikh 7% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslimHinduSikh

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

50.8% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.92). 69.1% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Ealing

1231506988%Census 2021UK-born 17% in 2051Foreign-born 83% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

high immigration gateway: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.

Census 2021 mobility: 10% moved within UK, 1.7% arrived from abroad
white other14% internal, 2.4% international
mixed11.3% internal, 1.4% international
other10.5% internal, 2.2% international
asian8.1% internal, 2.3% international
white british9.6% internal, 0.5% international
black7.7% internal, 0.9% international

Why Ealing is changing

-6.1pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
+3.9pp
Local migration
-3.7pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Ealing on UK Demographics →