Trend
-6 Latest quarter change
+218 Change across series
48 Official data points
Enfield
Feryal Clark
361 people housed on asylum support in Enfield
Rank 87 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 11.03 per 10,000 puts Enfield in the 63rd percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £20M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Enfield
£7.1Mestimated hotel costs/year
£923Ksubsistence payments/year
£433KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 361 people on asylum support in Enfield (0.34% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Enfield: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 207
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 154
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 740
Afghan programme 109
Resettlement cumulative 14
Population context
All pathways total 1,210
Share of local population 0.37%
Ethnic composition projection
Enfield: WBI 31.3% (2021) → 6.1% (2051). 80% CI: 6–7%.
Ethnic composition: Enfield
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Enfield
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Enfield ranges from 18.4% to 20.4% by 2051. That is a 2pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 19.2% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 20.0% (2021) → 15.3% (2051). Christian 49.9% → 17.7%.
Religion: Enfield
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
40.4% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.93). 76.5% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Enfield
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
high immigration gateway: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.
Census 2021 mobility: 7.6% moved within UK, 0.9% arrived from abroad
white other 9.7% internal, 1.7% international
mixed 9.4% internal, 0.8% international
other 8.1% internal, 1% international
asian 7% internal, 1.3% international
black 7.6% internal, 0.7% international
white british 5.8% internal, 0.3% international
Why Enfield is changing
-9.2ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Enfield on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 59.5%
Mixed 65.2%
White Other 65.8%
Other 55.6%
Homeownership rate
White British 58.6%
Mixed 43.5%
White Other 45%
Other 43.7%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 38.5%
Mixed 38.7%
White Other 33.8%
Other 28.8%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 52,922 pupils. 17.4% White British. Schools are 13.9pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White Other 31.9%
Black 21.9%
White British 17.4%
Mixed 12.7%
Asian 9.4%
Other 6.8%
What this means
Schools are 14pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
82.6% Minority pupils now
91.4% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
18.6% Primary WBI
15.7% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -0.17pp/year. Gradual diversification in school-age population.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 24.7% vs school 17.4% (-7.3pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
361 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
11.03 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in London by supported asylum.