Trend
+16 Latest quarter change
+75 Change across series
48 Official data points
Greenwich
Matthew Pennycook
144 people housed on asylum support in Greenwich
Rank 163 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 4.81 per 10,000 puts Greenwich in the 42nd percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £8M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Greenwich
£2.8Mestimated hotel costs/year
£368Ksubsistence payments/year
£173KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 144 people on asylum support in Greenwich (0.13% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Greenwich: asylum numbers still rising
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 113
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 31
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 1,410
Afghan programme 99
Resettlement cumulative 81
Population context
All pathways total 1,653
Share of local population 0.55%
Ethnic composition projection
Greenwich: WBI 41.4% (2021) → 12.3% (2051). 80% CI: 13.5–15.7%.
Ethnic composition: Greenwich
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Greenwich
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Greenwich ranges from 25.8% to 29.1% by 2051. That is a 3.3pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 27.2% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 9.1% (2021) → 13.8% (2051). Christian 47.8% → 22.0%.
Religion: Greenwich
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
37.5% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.86). 81.8% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Greenwich
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
high immigration gateway: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.
Census 2021 mobility: 10.1% moved within UK, 1.4% arrived from abroad
white other 15.6% internal, 2.9% international
other 11.4% internal, 2.9% international
asian 10.1% internal, 3% international
mixed 11.5% internal, 1% international
black 8.6% internal, 1.2% international
white british 8.7% internal, 0.3% international
Why Greenwich is changing
-10.9ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: local migration. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Greenwich on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 64.9%
Mixed 69%
White Other 81%
Other 64.5%
Homeownership rate
White British 44.9%
Mixed 34.4%
White Other 39.1%
Other 35.2%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 43.8%
Mixed 44.4%
White Other 56.9%
Other 39.4%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 43,337 pupils. 28.1% White British. Schools are 13.3pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
Black 29.5%
White British 28.1%
Mixed 13.9%
White Other 13.6%
Asian 11.4%
Other 3.4%
What this means
Schools are 13pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
71.9% Minority pupils now
88.1% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
26.5% Primary WBI
29.9% Secondary WBI
Accelerating diversification. Primary schools are significantly more diverse than secondary.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -0.5pp/year. Gradual diversification in school-age population.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 33.5% vs school 28.1% (-5.4pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
144 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
4.81 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in London by supported asylum.