Trend
+11 Latest quarter change
+599 Change across series
40 Official data points
Halton
Bobby Dean
604 people housed on asylum support in Halton
Rank 51 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 45.92 per 10,000 puts Halton in the 98th percentile. That means this area carries more asylum seekers per head than 90% of the country. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £33M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Halton
£11.9Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.5Msubsistence payments/year
£725KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 604 people on asylum support in Halton (0.56% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Halton: asylum numbers still rising
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 599
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 5
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 93
Afghan programme 0
Resettlement cumulative 169
Population context
All pathways total 697
Share of local population 0.53%
Ethnic composition projection
Halton: WBI 93.6% (2021) → 81.6% (2051). 80% CI: 79–82.3%.
Ethnic composition: Halton
White British White Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Halton
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Halton ranges from 59.3% to 80.8% by 2051. That is a 21.5pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 67.1% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 0.7% (2021) → 4.4% (2051). Christian 61.4% → 10.1%.
Religion: Halton
Christian No religion Muslim
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
4.8% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.18). 97.3% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Halton
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 6.8% moved within UK, 0.4% arrived from abroad
other 11.4% internal, 12.3% international
black 12.3% internal, 9.2% international
white other 12.2% internal, 3.1% international
asian 11.9% internal, 3.3% international
mixed 11.6% internal, 1.3% international
white british 6.4% internal, 0.1% international
Why Halton is changing
-2.8ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Halton on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 59.3%
Mixed 64.8%
White Other 74.2%
Other 41.4%
Homeownership rate
White British 62.2%
Mixed 49.9%
White Other 40.7%
Other 20.8%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 23.5%
Mixed 32.1%
White Other 35%
Other 24.3%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 18,192 pupils. 89.9% White British.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 89.9%
Mixed 3.8%
White Other 3.5%
Other 1%
Asian 1%
Black 0.8%
What this means
School and population ethnic composition are closely aligned.
10.1% Minority pupils now
21.8% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
89.1% Primary WBI
90.8% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -0.61pp/year. Gradual diversification in school-age population.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 92.8% vs school 89.9% (-2.9pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
604 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
45.92 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North West by supported asylum.