asylumstatsFollow the money
London

Harrow

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Bob Blackman
Bob BlackmanConservative · Harrow East

2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Harrow.

343 people on asylum support in Harrow

Rank 92 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 12.58 per 10,000 puts Harrow in the 66th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. 68 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. 57 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). Accommodation and support for 343 people at £107 per person per day is about £13.4M a year.

What asylum costs Harrow

£7.7Mestimated hotel costs/year
£877Ksubsistence payments/year
£412KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 343 people on asylum support in Harrow(0.37% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Harrow: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

356
4032691340Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Sept 2023Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 201452
Jun 201450
Sept 201453
Dec 201466
Mar 201566
Jun 201569
Sept 201553
Dec 201551
Mar 201639
Jun 201637
Sept 201635
Dec 201640
Mar 201740
Jun 201738
Sept 201748
Dec 201755
Mar 201870
Jun 201896
Sept 2018108
Dec 201897
Mar 2019116
Jun 2019112
Sept 2019104
Dec 2019125
Mar 2020135
Jun 2020140
Sept 2020148
Dec 2020152
Mar 2021176
Jun 2021216
Sept 2021233
Dec 2021221
Mar 2022242
Jun 2022250
Sept 2022253
Dec 2022387
Mar 2023370
Jun 2023386
Sept 2023403
Dec 2023261
Mar 2024297
Jun 2024276
Sept 2024254
Dec 2024284
Mar 2025349
Jun 2025344
Sept 2025348
Dec 2025356

Trend

+8Latest quarter change
+304Change across series
48Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation218
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only68
Contingency accommodation57

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
343
Homes for Ukraine
670
Afghan programme
213
Resettlement cumulative
8

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine670
Afghan programme213
Resettlement cumulative8

Population context

All pathways total1,226
Share of local population0.45%

Ethnic composition projection

Shown to 2051 rather than 2061. Past that point the model puts a residual Census category above a quarter of the population and several times its 2021 share, which is unconstrained compounding rather than a forecast, so those years are withheld.

Harrow: White British 20.5% (2021) to 4.8% (2051). 80% CI: 4.5, 5.5%.

Ethnic composition: Harrow

013253850% of populationCensus 2021White British 5% in 2051White Other 23% in 2051Asian 40% in 2051Black 6% in 2051Mixed 5% in 2051Other 21% in 205120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Harrow

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
31%
11%
43%
10%
2021
21%
16%
45%
2031proj
13%
19%
45%
11%
2041proj
8%
21%
43%
16%
2051proj
23%
40%
21%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Harrow ranges from10.9% to 12.2%by 2051. That is a 1.3pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 11.4% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 16.9% (2021) → 30.4% (2051). Christian 36.0% → 23.7%.

Religion: Harrow

615243241%Census 2021Christian 24% in 2051No religion 14% in 2051Muslim 30% in 2051Hindu 26% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslimHindu

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

51.1% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.83). 69.3% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Harrow

1231506988%Census 2021UK-born 17% in 2051Foreign-born 83% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

high immigration gateway: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.

Census 2021 mobility: 8.5% moved within UK, 1.4% arrived from abroad
white other13.4% internal, 2.1% international
other10.1% internal, 1.6% international
mixed9.1% internal, 1.1% international
asian7.8% internal, 1.7% international
black7.8% internal, 1% international
white british5.7% internal, 0.4% international

Why Harrow is changing

-10.4pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
+3.9pp
Local migration
-7.9pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: local migration. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Harrow on UK Demographics →