Trend
+8 Latest quarter change
+304 Change across series
48 Official data points
Harrow
Bob Blackman
2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Harrow.
327 people housed on asylum support in Harrow
Rank 97 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 12.08 per 10,000 puts Harrow in the 65th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. 66 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £18M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Harrow
£6.4Mestimated hotel costs/year
£836Ksubsistence payments/year
£392KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 327 people on asylum support in Harrow (0.31% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Harrow: asylum numbers still rising
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 199
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 62
Contingency accommodation 66
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 631
Afghan programme 199
Resettlement cumulative 8
Population context
All pathways total 1,157
Share of local population 0.43%
Ethnic composition projection
Harrow: WBI 20.5% (2021) → 2.2% (2051). 80% CI: 2.7–3.2%.
Ethnic composition: Harrow
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Harrow
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Harrow ranges from 10.9% to 12.2% by 2051. That is a 1.3pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 11.4% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 16.9% (2021) → 30.4% (2051). Christian 36.0% → 23.7%.
Religion: Harrow
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
51.1% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.83). 69.3% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Harrow
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
high immigration gateway: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.
Census 2021 mobility: 8.5% moved within UK, 1.4% arrived from abroad
white other 13.4% internal, 2.1% international
other 10.1% internal, 1.6% international
mixed 9.1% internal, 1.1% international
asian 7.8% internal, 1.7% international
black 7.8% internal, 1% international
white british 5.7% internal, 0.4% international
Why Harrow is changing
-10.4ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: local migration. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Harrow on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 61.9%
Mixed 65.9%
White Other 75%
Other 55.7%
Homeownership rate
White British 66.8%
Mixed 46%
White Other 36.4%
Other 40.4%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 47.4%
Mixed 41.9%
White Other 36.5%
Other 40.2%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 38,277 pupils. 7.3% White British. Schools are 13.2pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
Asian 52.8%
White Other 17.6%
Mixed 8.5%
Black 7.8%
White British 7.3%
Other 6%
What this means
Schools are 13pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
92.7% Minority pupils now
95.7% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
7.1% Primary WBI
7.3% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -0.58pp/year. Gradual diversification in school-age population.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 13.7% vs school 7.3% (-6.4pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
327 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
12.08 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
66 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in London by supported asylum.