Trend
-212 Latest quarter change
+1,988 Change across series
48 Official data points
Hillingdon
1,532 people housed on asylum support in Hillingdon
Rank 8 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 46.54 per 10,000 puts Hillingdon in the 99th percentile. That means this area carries more asylum seekers per head than 90% of the country. 1,310 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £84M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Hillingdon
£30.2Mestimated hotel costs/year
£3.9Msubsistence payments/year
£1.8MLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 1,532 people on asylum support in Hillingdon (1.43% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Hillingdon: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 137
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 85
Contingency accommodation 1,310
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 754
Afghan programme 187
Resettlement cumulative 0
Population context
All pathways total 2,473
Share of local population 0.75%
Ethnic composition projection
Hillingdon: WBI 37.1% (2021) → 6.5% (2051). 80% CI: 6.8–8%.
Ethnic composition: Hillingdon
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Hillingdon
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Hillingdon ranges from 22.1% to 24.9% by 2051. That is a 2.8pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 23.3% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 15.3% (2021) → 27.2% (2051). Christian 41.4% → 14.7%.
Religion: Hillingdon
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu Sikh
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
38.5% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.83). 77.9% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Hillingdon
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
high immigration gateway: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.
Census 2021 mobility: 8.9% moved within UK, 1.4% arrived from abroad
white other 13.2% internal, 2.6% international
other 10.9% internal, 2.2% international
mixed 10.6% internal, 1.4% international
asian 9.5% internal, 2.1% international
black 9.5% internal, 1.5% international
white british 6.3% internal, 0.3% international
Why Hillingdon is changing
-15.1ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: local migration. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Hillingdon on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 62.4%
Mixed 66%
White Other 74.5%
Other 60%
Homeownership rate
White British 61.6%
Mixed 43.4%
White Other 42%
Other 45.1%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 36.8%
Mixed 36.2%
White Other 41.5%
Other 39.4%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 51,811 pupils. 22.5% White British. Schools are 14.6pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
Asian 33.4%
White British 22.5%
Mixed 14.4%
White Other 10.5%
Black 9.7%
Other 9.6%
What this means
Schools are 15pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
77.5% Minority pupils now
89.2% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
21.3% Primary WBI
23.3% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -1.33pp/year. Rapid diversification in young cohorts. The demographic wave is accelerating.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 28.5% vs school 22.5% (-6pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
1,532 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
46.54 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
1,310 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in London by supported asylum.