Trend
-358 Latest quarter change
+1,659 Change across series
48 Official data points
Hounslow
1,298 people housed on asylum support in Hounslow
Rank 13 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 43.35 per 10,000 puts Hounslow in the 97th percentile. That means this area carries more asylum seekers per head than 90% of the country. 1,098 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £71M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Hounslow
£25.5Mestimated hotel costs/year
£3.3Msubsistence payments/year
£1.6MLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 1,298 people on asylum support in Hounslow (1.21% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Hounslow: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 136
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 64
Contingency accommodation 1,098
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 1,282
Afghan programme 270
Resettlement cumulative 37
Population context
All pathways total 2,850
Share of local population 0.95%
Ethnic composition projection
Hounslow: WBI 28.4% (2021) → 7.0% (2051). 80% CI: 7.2–8.4%.
Ethnic composition: Hounslow
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Hounslow
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Hounslow ranges from 17.5% to 19.6% by 2051. That is a 2.2pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 18.4% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 17.7% (2021) → 26.7% (2051). Christian 40.7% → 27.7%.
Religion: Hounslow
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu Sikh
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
49.5% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.86). 71.7% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Hounslow
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
high immigration gateway: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.
Census 2021 mobility: 9.4% moved within UK, 1.8% arrived from abroad
white other 14.3% internal, 2.3% international
other 9.6% internal, 2.9% international
asian 9.3% internal, 2.7% international
mixed 9.6% internal, 1.2% international
black 7.6% internal, 1.3% international
white british 7.4% internal, 0.4% international
Why Hounslow is changing
-9.5ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: local migration. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Hounslow on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 63.7%
Mixed 66%
White Other 78.7%
Other 57.3%
Homeownership rate
White British 51.8%
Mixed 37.7%
White Other 35.6%
Other 40.3%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 41.2%
Mixed 39.9%
White Other 45%
Other 38.5%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 44,717 pupils. 14.5% White British. Schools are 13.9pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
Asian 39.5%
White British 14.5%
White Other 13.9%
Other 11.8%
Mixed 10.4%
Black 9.9%
What this means
Schools are 14pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
85.5% Minority pupils now
89.8% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
14.4% Primary WBI
13.7% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -0.64pp/year. Gradual diversification in school-age population.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 24.1% vs school 14.5% (-9.6pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
1,298 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
43.35 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
1,098 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in London by supported asylum.