Trend
-26 Latest quarter change
+412 Change across series
48 Official data points
Hyndburn
Sarah Smith
412 people housed on asylum support in Hyndburn
Rank 79 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 47.87 per 10,000 puts Hyndburn in the 100th percentile. That means this area carries more asylum seekers per head than 90% of the country. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2058. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £23M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Hyndburn
£8.1Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.1Msubsistence payments/year
£494KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 412 people on asylum support in Hyndburn (0.39% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Hyndburn: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 401
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 11
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 107
Afghan programme 64
Resettlement cumulative 86
Population context
All pathways total 583
Share of local population 0.68%
Ethnic composition projection
Hyndburn: WBI 79.6% (2021) → 56.9% (2051). White British minority by ~2058. 80% CI: 49.9–54.3%.
Ethnic composition: Hyndburn
White British White Other Asian Mixed 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Hyndburn
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Hyndburn ranges from 39.2% to 58.6% by 2051. That is a 19.4pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 45.9% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 15.4% (2021) → 21.0% (2051). Christian 53.8% → 11.6%.
Religion: Hyndburn
Christian No religion Muslim
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
9% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.38). 94% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Hyndburn
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 7.3% moved within UK, 0.3% arrived from abroad
black 16.1% internal, 4.5% international
other 10.1% internal, 4.9% international
mixed 11.1% internal, 0.3% international
white other 8.6% internal, 1.4% international
white british 7.6% internal, 0.1% international
asian 4.8% internal, 1% international
Why Hyndburn is changing
-5.6ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Hyndburn on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 57.2%
Mixed 66.1%
White Other 70.4%
Other 53.9%
Homeownership rate
White British 64.2%
Mixed 42.5%
White Other 45.6%
Other 36.4%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 25.1%
Mixed 28.8%
White Other 26.4%
Other 25%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
Crime
104.8 crimes per 1,000 residents (80th percentile). Down 2.4% year-on-year.
Crime breakdown
Key metrics
104.8 Per 1,000 residents
142 Hate crimes
38.2 Violent crime /1,000
Source
ONS recorded crime, Year ending March 2024. Correlation with asylum dispersal does not imply causation.
SEND pressure
EHCP rate: 408 per 10,000 pupils (56th percentile). 5-year growth: +40.4%.
Academic year 2023/24 Rapid growth
Primary need types
Key metrics
1,124 Total EHCPs
28.2% ASD as primary need
Source
DfE SEN2 return, Academic year 2023/24. Rising EHCPs reflect multiple factors, not solely population change.
Social care
Adult social care: £592 per capita (80th percentile).
£592 Gross spend per capita
408 Residential per 10k 65+
18.1 Quality of life (ASCOF 1A)
724 Delayed transfer days
Source
NHS Digital SALT/ASCOF, 2023/24.
Pressure index
Combined score across 5 domains: 79.9/100.
High pressure
47.9 Asylum rate /10k
-0.57pp WB annual change
104.8 Crime /1,000
+40.4% SEND 5yr growth
£592 ASC /capita
Methodology
Each domain converted to percentile rank (0-100). Composite = unweighted mean. Measures correlation, not causation.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
412 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
47.87 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North West by supported asylum.