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North West

Hyndburn

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Sarah Smith
Sarah SmithLabour · Hyndburn
426 people on asylum support in Hyndburn

Rank 71 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 49.02 per 10,000 puts Hyndburn in the 100th percentile. That means this area carries more asylum seekers per head than 90% of the country. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2053. 3 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 426 people at £107 per person per day is about £16.6M a year.

What asylum costs Hyndburn

£9.6Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.1Msubsistence payments/year
£511KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 426 people on asylum support in Hyndburn(0.46% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Hyndburn: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

415
4633091540Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Jun 2023Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 20143
Jun 20143
Sept 20143
Dec 20143
Mar 20153
Jun 20153
Sept 20153
Dec 20153
Mar 20163
Jun 201611
Sept 201614
Dec 201618
Mar 201724
Jun 201718
Sept 201726
Dec 201727
Mar 201825
Jun 201824
Sept 201823
Dec 201833
Mar 201945
Jun 201952
Sept 201948
Dec 201936
Mar 202043
Jun 202044
Sept 202047
Dec 202048
Mar 202163
Jun 202189
Sept 2021116
Dec 2021177
Mar 2022223
Jun 2022254
Sept 2022270
Dec 2022267
Mar 2023261
Jun 2023463
Sept 2023425
Dec 2023408
Mar 2024440
Jun 2024423
Sept 2024394
Dec 2024393
Mar 2025392
Jun 2025435
Sept 2025441
Dec 2025415

Trend

-26Latest quarter change
+412Change across series
48Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation423
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only3
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
426
Homes for Ukraine
110
Afghan programme
64
Resettlement cumulative
86

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine110
Afghan programme64
Resettlement cumulative86

Population context

All pathways total600
Share of local population0.69%

Ethnic composition projection

Hyndburn: White British 79.6% (2021) to 52.0% (2051). White British minority by ~2053. 80% CI: 50.3, 56.5%.

Ethnic composition: Hyndburn

023456890% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 41% in 2061White Other 6% in 2061Asian 38% in 2061Mixed 10% in 2061Other 5% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Hyndburn

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
85%
11%
2021
80%
15%
2031proj
72%
20%
2041proj
63%
27%
2051proj
52%
33%
2061proj
41%
38%
10%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Hyndburn ranges from39.2% to 58.6%by 2051. That is a 19.4pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 45.9% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 15.4% (2021) → 21.0% (2051). Christian 53.8% → 11.6%.

Religion: Hyndburn

723395572%Census 2021Christian 12% in 2051No religion 67% in 2051Muslim 21% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslim

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

9% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.38). 94% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Hyndburn

427507396%Census 2021UK-born 56% in 2051Foreign-born 44% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 7.3% moved within UK, 0.3% arrived from abroad
black16.1% internal, 4.5% international
other10.1% internal, 4.9% international
mixed11.1% internal, 0.3% international
white other8.6% internal, 1.4% international
white british7.6% internal, 0.1% international
asian4.8% internal, 1% international

Why Hyndburn is changing

-5.6pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.4pp
Local migration
+1.2pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Hyndburn on UK Demographics →