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London

Kensington and Chelsea

Updated 31 Dec 2025 · Home Office
Ben Coleman
Ben Coleman Labour · Chelsea and Fulham

2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Kensington and Chelsea.

205 people housed on asylum support in Kensington and Chelsea

Rank 141 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 14.19 per 10,000 puts Kensington and Chelsea in the 68th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. 202 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £11M per year for this area alone.

What asylum costs Kensington and Chelsea

£4.0Mestimated hotel costs/year
£524Ksubsistence payments/year
£246KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 205 people on asylum support in Kensington and Chelsea (0.19% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.

Kensington and Chelsea: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

258
699 466 233 0 Mar 2014 Dec 2025 Peak Dec 2022 Rwanda scheme Albania deal Bibby Stockholm Rwanda scrapped

Trend

-33 Latest quarter change
+246 Change across series
48 Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation 0
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 3
Contingency accommodation 202

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
205
Homes for Ukraine
1,016
Afghan programme
22
Resettlement cumulative
5

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine 1,016
Afghan programme 22
Resettlement cumulative 5

Population context

All pathways total 1,243
Share of local population 0.86%

Ethnic composition projection

Kensington and Chelsea: WBI 32.7% (2021) → 15.6% (2051). 80% CI: 11.4–14.2%.

Ethnic composition: Kensington and Chelsea

0 11 22 33 44 % of population Census 2021 Illustrative White British 11% White Other 21% Asian 15% Black 11% Mixed 10% Other 32% 20112021203120412051
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Kensington and Chelsea

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
39%
31%
10%
8%
2021
33%
31%
12%
10%
2031 proj
27%
31%
12%
9%
14%
2041 proj
21%
28%
14%
10%
9%
19%
2051 proj
16%
25%
15%
11%
10%
25%
2061 proj
11%
21%
15%
11%
10%
32%
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Kensington and Chelsea ranges from 17.3% to 21.1% by 2051. That is a 3.8pp spread.

Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 18.8% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 13.1% (2021) → 18.6% (2051). Christian 53.7% → 32.8%.

Religion: Kensington and Chelsea

8 21 33 46 59 % Census 2021 Christian 33% No religion 42% Muslim 19% 2021203120412051
Christian No religion Muslim

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

53.9% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.89). 76.4% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Kensington and Chelsea

11 30 50 70 89 % Census 2021 UK-born 16% Foreign-born 84% 2021203120412051
UK-born Foreign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

high immigration gateway: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.

Census 2021 mobility: 13.1% moved within UK, 3.9% arrived from abroad
white other 16% internal, 6.1% international
asian 14.3% internal, 6.1% international
mixed 13.8% internal, 3.1% international
other 10.5% internal, 4% international
white british 12% internal, 1.9% international
black 6.7% internal, 1.2% international

Why Kensington and Chelsea is changing

-6.6pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
+3.2pp
Local migration
-3.4pp

White British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profile School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics. View Kensington and Chelsea on UK Demographics →