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London

Kensington and Chelsea

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Ben Coleman
Ben ColemanLabour · Chelsea and Fulham

2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Kensington and Chelsea.

180 people on asylum support in Kensington and Chelsea

Rank 147 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 12.35 per 10,000 puts Kensington and Chelsea in the 66th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. 1 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. 179 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). Accommodation and support for 180 people at £107 per person per day is about £7.0M a year.

What asylum costs Kensington and Chelsea

£4.1Mestimated hotel costs/year
£460Ksubsistence payments/year
£216KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 180 people on asylum support in Kensington and Chelsea(0.19% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Kensington and Chelsea: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

258
6994662330Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Dec 2022Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 201412
Jun 201414
Sept 201414
Dec 201412
Mar 201520
Jun 201516
Sept 201514
Dec 201514
Mar 201613
Jun 201612
Sept 201611
Dec 201611
Mar 201713
Jun 201714
Sept 201713
Dec 20177
Mar 20188
Jun 20188
Sept 201811
Dec 20189
Mar 20195
Jun 20193
Sept 20194
Dec 20194
Mar 20206
Jun 202013
Sept 202015
Dec 202012
Mar 202122
Jun 202125
Sept 202134
Dec 202199
Mar 202297
Jun 202268
Sept 202283
Dec 2022699
Mar 2023690
Jun 2023584
Sept 2023348
Dec 2023309
Mar 2024266
Jun 2024267
Sept 2024311
Dec 2024307
Mar 2025261
Jun 2025237
Sept 2025291
Dec 2025258

Trend

-33Latest quarter change
+246Change across series
48Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation0
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only1
Contingency accommodation179

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
180
Homes for Ukraine
1,037
Afghan programme
22
Resettlement cumulative
5

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine1,037
Afghan programme22
Resettlement cumulative5

Population context

All pathways total1,239
Share of local population0.85%

Ethnic composition projection

Kensington and Chelsea: White British 32.7% (2021) to 14.9% (2051). 80% CI: 13.5, 17.3%.

Ethnic composition: Kensington and Chelsea

011223344% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 11% in 2061White Other 21% in 2061Asian 13% in 2061Black 13% in 2061Mixed 13% in 2061Other 29% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Kensington and Chelsea

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
39%
31%
10%
8%
2021
33%
31%
12%
10%
2031proj
26%
30%
12%
9%
8%
14%
2041proj
20%
27%
13%
11%
10%
19%
2051proj
15%
24%
13%
12%
12%
24%
2061proj
11%
21%
13%
13%
13%
29%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Kensington and Chelsea ranges from17.3% to 21.1%by 2051. That is a 3.8pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 18.8% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 13.1% (2021) → 18.6% (2051). Christian 53.7% → 32.8%.

Religion: Kensington and Chelsea

821334659%Census 2021Christian 33% in 2051No religion 42% in 2051Muslim 19% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslim

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

53.9% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.89). 76.4% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Kensington and Chelsea

1130507089%Census 2021UK-born 16% in 2051Foreign-born 84% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

high immigration gateway: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.

Census 2021 mobility: 13.1% moved within UK, 3.9% arrived from abroad
white other16% internal, 6.1% international
asian14.3% internal, 6.1% international
mixed13.8% internal, 3.1% international
other10.5% internal, 4% international
white british12% internal, 1.9% international
black6.7% internal, 1.2% international

Why Kensington and Chelsea is changing

-6.6pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
+3.2pp
Local migration
-3.4pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Kensington and Chelsea on UK Demographics →