Trend
-11 Latest quarter change
+535 Change across series
48 Official data points
Kingston upon Hull, City of
Karl Turner
3 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Kingston upon Hull, City of.
608 people housed on asylum support in Kingston upon Hull, City of
Rank 50 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 22.08 per 10,000 puts Kingston upon Hull, City of in the 84th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2049. 149 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £33M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Kingston upon Hull, City of
£12.0Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.6Msubsistence payments/year
£730KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 608 people on asylum support in Kingston upon Hull, City of (0.57% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Kingston upon Hull, City of: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 435
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 24
Contingency accommodation 149
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 331
Afghan programme 146
Resettlement cumulative 185
Population context
All pathways total 1,085
Share of local population 0.39%
Ethnic composition projection
Kingston upon Hull, City of: WBI 83.9% (2021) → 46.7% (2051). White British minority by ~2049. 80% CI: 46.9–52.7%.
Ethnic composition: Kingston upon Hull, City of
White British White Other Asian Black Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Kingston upon Hull, City of
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Kingston upon Hull, City of ranges from 61.3% to 71.7% by 2051. That is a 10.4pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 65.5% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 3.7% (2021) → 8.9% (2051). Christian 42.5% → 8.9%.
Religion: Kingston upon Hull, City of
Christian No religion Muslim
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
13.1% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.37). 90% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Kingston upon Hull, City of
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 9.4% moved within UK, 0.8% arrived from abroad
asian 13.8% internal, 5.4% international
black 15% internal, 3.6% international
other 14.3% internal, 3.8% international
white other 13.7% internal, 4% international
mixed 13.4% internal, 1.2% international
white british 8.5% internal, 0.2% international
Why Kingston upon Hull, City of is changing
-5.8ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Kingston upon Hull, City of on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 58.4%
Mixed 58.2%
White Other 79.2%
Other 50.7%
Homeownership rate
White British 51.2%
Mixed 32.8%
White Other 25.9%
Other 19.3%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 21.4%
Mixed 27.7%
White Other 24.3%
Other 26.3%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
608 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
22.08 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
149 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in Yorkshire and The Humber by supported asylum.