Trend
-83 Latest quarter change
+372 Change across series
48 Official data points
Lambeth
346 people housed on asylum support in Lambeth
Rank 92 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 10.92 per 10,000 puts Lambeth in the 62nd percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. 282 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £19M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Lambeth
£6.8Mestimated hotel costs/year
£885Ksubsistence payments/year
£415KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 346 people on asylum support in Lambeth (0.32% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Lambeth: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 45
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 19
Contingency accommodation 282
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 997
Afghan programme 108
Resettlement cumulative 125
Population context
All pathways total 1,451
Share of local population 0.46%
Ethnic composition projection
Lambeth: WBI 37.6% (2021) → 18.0% (2051). 80% CI: 16.7–22.9%.
Ethnic composition: Lambeth
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Lambeth
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Lambeth ranges from 27.6% to 30.7% by 2051. That is a 3.1pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 28.9% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 8.8% (2021) → 9.4% (2051). Christian 47.3% → 18.6%.
Religion: Lambeth
Christian No religion Muslim
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
38.6% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.88). 82.2% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Lambeth
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
high immigration gateway: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.
Census 2021 mobility: 15.4% moved within UK, 1.8% arrived from abroad
white other 18.4% internal, 3.7% international
white british 20.5% internal, 0.9% international
asian 13.6% internal, 4.4% international
other 13.9% internal, 3.2% international
mixed 14.7% internal, 1.8% international
black 6.3% internal, 0.8% international
Why Lambeth is changing
-1.4ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Lambeth on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 71.7%
Mixed 73.8%
White Other 80.4%
Other 68.8%
Homeownership rate
White British 37.5%
Mixed 24.6%
White Other 32%
Other 18.9%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 57.8%
Mixed 49.2%
White Other 58.5%
Other 37.6%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 33,838 pupils. 16% White British. Schools are 21.6pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
Black 38.7%
Mixed 17.1%
White British 16%
White Other 15.2%
Asian 6.5%
Other 6.4%
What this means
Schools are 22pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
84% Minority pupils now
86% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
18.6% Primary WBI
13.1% Secondary WBI
Slowing diversification. Primary schools are less diverse than secondary.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at +0.26pp/year. WBI share stable or increasing in schools.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 25.5% vs school 16% (-9.5pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
346 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
10.92 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
282 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in London by supported asylum.