asylumstatsFollow the money
North West

Lancaster

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Cat Smith
Cat SmithLabour · Lancaster and Wyre
238 people on asylum support in Lancaster

Rank 120 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 16.39 per 10,000 puts Lancaster in the 74th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. 2 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 238 people at £107 per person per day is about £9.3M a year.

What asylum costs Lancaster

£5.4Mestimated hotel costs/year
£609Ksubsistence payments/year
£286KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 238 people on asylum support in Lancaster(0.26% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Lancaster: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

245
4903271630Dec 2015Dec 2025Peak Sept 2023Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Dec 20158
Mar 20168
Jun 201616
Sept 201617
Dec 201685
Mar 201799
Jun 201793
Sept 2017117
Dec 2017120
Mar 2018123
Jun 2018126
Sept 2018141
Dec 2018134
Mar 2019152
Jun 2019145
Sept 2019150
Dec 2019138
Mar 2020133
Jun 2020146
Sept 2020130
Dec 2020129
Mar 2021118
Jun 2021121
Sept 2021114
Dec 2021121
Mar 2022132
Jun 2022135
Sept 2022145
Dec 2022367
Mar 2023352
Jun 2023418
Sept 2023490
Dec 2023191
Mar 2024228
Jun 2024213
Sept 2024217
Dec 2024213
Mar 2025186
Jun 2025224
Sept 2025239
Dec 2025245

Trend

+6Latest quarter change
+237Change across series
41Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation236
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only2
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
238
Homes for Ukraine
301
Afghan programme
40
Resettlement cumulative
98

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine301
Afghan programme40
Resettlement cumulative98

Population context

All pathways total579
Share of local population0.4%

Ethnic composition projection

Lancaster: White British 87.8% (2021) to 77.0% (2051). 80% CI: 75.8, 80.4%.

Ethnic composition: Lancaster

024487297% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 71% in 2061White Other 8% in 2061Asian 5% in 2061Mixed 6% in 2061Other 7% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Lancaster

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
92%
2021
88%
2031proj
85%
2041proj
82%
2051proj
77%
2061proj
71%
8%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Lancaster ranges from54.8% to 72.3%by 2051. That is a 17.5pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 61.3% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 2.0% (2021) → 3.2% (2051). Christian 55.5% → 14.2%.

Religion: Lancaster

021436486%Census 2021Christian 14% in 2051No religion 81% in 2051Muslim 3% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslim

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

9.5% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.3). 94.7% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Lancaster

527507396%Census 2021UK-born 54% in 2051Foreign-born 46% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 11.3% moved within UK, 1.3% arrived from abroad
black23.4% internal, 8.6% international
asian18.7% internal, 10.3% international
other18.2% internal, 7.7% international
mixed18.8% internal, 4.2% international
white other13.8% internal, 8.1% international
white british10.5% internal, 0.4% international

Why Lancaster is changing

-3.7pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.9pp
Local migration
+3.6pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Lancaster on UK Demographics →