Trend
+6 Latest quarter change
+237 Change across series
41 Official data points
Lancaster
Cat Smith
245 people housed on asylum support in Lancaster
Rank 122 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 16.9 per 10,000 puts Lancaster in the 73rd percentile. That means this area carries more than most. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £13M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Lancaster
£4.8Mestimated hotel costs/year
£627Ksubsistence payments/year
£294KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 245 people on asylum support in Lancaster (0.23% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Lancaster: asylum numbers still rising
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 243
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 2
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 296
Afghan programme 29
Resettlement cumulative 95
Population context
All pathways total 570
Share of local population 0.39%
Ethnic composition projection
Lancaster: WBI 87.8% (2021) → 81.7% (2051). 80% CI: 71.4–75.7%.
Ethnic composition: Lancaster
White British White Other Asian Mixed 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Lancaster
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Lancaster ranges from 54.8% to 72.3% by 2051. That is a 17.5pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 61.3% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 2.0% (2021) → 3.2% (2051). Christian 55.5% → 14.2%.
Religion: Lancaster
Christian No religion Muslim
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
9.5% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.3). 94.7% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Lancaster
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 11.3% moved within UK, 1.3% arrived from abroad
black 23.4% internal, 8.6% international
asian 18.7% internal, 10.3% international
other 18.2% internal, 7.7% international
mixed 18.8% internal, 4.2% international
white other 13.8% internal, 8.1% international
white british 10.5% internal, 0.4% international
Why Lancaster is changing
-3.7ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Lancaster on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 54.5%
Mixed 51%
White Other 64.3%
Other 50.3%
Homeownership rate
White British 69.5%
Mixed 47.1%
White Other 45.8%
Other 32.8%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 31.8%
Mixed 35.2%
White Other 38.8%
Other 45.6%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
Crime
74.8 crimes per 1,000 residents (44th percentile). Down 0.7% year-on-year.
Crime breakdown
Key metrics
74.8 Per 1,000 residents
124 Hate crimes
27.1 Violent crime /1,000
Source
ONS recorded crime, Year ending March 2024. Correlation with asylum dispersal does not imply causation.
SEND pressure
EHCP rate: 356 per 10,000 pupils (28th percentile). 5-year growth: +36.8%.
Academic year 2023/24
Primary need types
Key metrics
1,842 Total EHCPs
32.1% ASD as primary need
Source
DfE SEN2 return, Academic year 2023/24. Rising EHCPs reflect multiple factors, not solely population change.
Social care
Adult social care: £518 per capita (52th percentile).
£518 Gross spend per capita
372 Residential per 10k 65+
19.1 Quality of life (ASCOF 1A)
1,242 Delayed transfer days
Source
NHS Digital SALT/ASCOF, 2023/24.
Pressure index
Combined score across 5 domains: 53.8/100.
16.9 Asylum rate /10k
-0.37pp WB annual change
74.8 Crime /1,000
+36.8% SEND 5yr growth
£518 ASC /capita
Methodology
Each domain converted to percentile rank (0-100). Composite = unweighted mean. Measures correlation, not causation.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
245 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
16.9 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North West by supported asylum.