Trend
+57 Latest quarter change
+1,323 Change across series
48 Official data points
Leeds
Alex Sobel
7 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Leeds.
1,416 people housed on asylum support in Leeds
Rank 11 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 16.75 per 10,000 puts Leeds in the 73rd percentile. That means this area carries more than most. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2040. 276 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £78M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Leeds
£27.9Mestimated hotel costs/year
£3.6Msubsistence payments/year
£1.7MLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 1,416 people on asylum support in Leeds (1.32% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Leeds: asylum numbers still rising
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 1,086
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 54
Contingency accommodation 276
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 1,147
Afghan programme 671
Resettlement cumulative 406
Population context
All pathways total 3,234
Share of local population 0.38%
Ethnic composition projection
Leeds: WBI 73.4% (2021) → 33.3% (2051). White British minority by ~2040. 80% CI: 36.8–41.6%.
Ethnic composition: Leeds
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Leeds
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Leeds ranges from 57.4% to 61.0% by 2051. That is a 3.7pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 59.0% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 8.3% (2021) → 14.0% (2051). Christian 44.9% → 11.3%.
Religion: Leeds
Christian No religion Muslim
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
15.8% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.55). 90.9% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Leeds
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 11.3% moved within UK, 1.2% arrived from abroad
white other 15.2% internal, 3.8% international
other 12.9% internal, 4.9% international
mixed 15.3% internal, 1.3% international
black 11.9% internal, 2.6% international
asian 9.3% internal, 4.5% international
white british 11% internal, 0.3% international
Why Leeds is changing
-7.8ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Leeds on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 60.3%
Mixed 64.7%
White Other 72.1%
Other 51.7%
Homeownership rate
White British 59.9%
Mixed 33.5%
White Other 38.1%
Other 31.9%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 33.8%
Mixed 36%
White Other 44.2%
Other 42.2%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 129,264 pupils. 58.9% White British. Schools are 14.5pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 58.9%
Asian 14.2%
Black 10.1%
Mixed 7.7%
White Other 6.4%
Other 2.8%
What this means
Schools are 14pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
41.1% Minority pupils now
54.4% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
58.1% Primary WBI
59.7% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -0.92pp/year. Gradual diversification in school-age population.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 63.6% vs school 58.9% (-4.7pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
1,416 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
16.75 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
276 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in Yorkshire and The Humber by supported asylum.