Trend
-25 Latest quarter change
+135 Change across series
48 Official data points
Lewisham
Janet Daby
3 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Lewisham.
245 people housed on asylum support in Lewisham
Rank 123 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 8.13 per 10,000 puts Lewisham in the 56th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. 120 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £13M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Lewisham
£4.8Mestimated hotel costs/year
£627Ksubsistence payments/year
£294KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 245 people on asylum support in Lewisham (0.23% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Lewisham: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 88
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 37
Contingency accommodation 120
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 947
Afghan programme 238
Resettlement cumulative 206
Population context
All pathways total 1,430
Share of local population 0.47%
Ethnic composition projection
Lewisham: WBI 37.2% (2021) → 20.9% (2051). 80% CI: 19.1–22.5%.
Ethnic composition: Lewisham
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Lewisham
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Lewisham ranges from 24.6% to 27.6% by 2051. That is a 3pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 25.9% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 8.0% (2021) → 8.6% (2051). Christian 47.4% → 19.1%.
Religion: Lewisham
Christian No religion Muslim
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
35.6% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.87). 83.8% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Lewisham
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
high immigration gateway: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.
Census 2021 mobility: 10.3% moved within UK, 1.1% arrived from abroad
white other 14.8% internal, 2.2% international
mixed 11.5% internal, 1.3% international
asian 9.3% internal, 2.9% international
other 10.1% internal, 2.1% international
white british 11.4% internal, 0.5% international
black 6.3% internal, 0.7% international
Why Lewisham is changing
-4.3ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Lewisham on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 68%
Mixed 70.7%
White Other 80.4%
Other 65.1%
Homeownership rate
White British 45.5%
Mixed 32.1%
White Other 40.2%
Other 32.2%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 49.2%
Mixed 45.7%
White Other 58.4%
Other 37.1%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 36,241 pupils. 25.2% White British. Schools are 12pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
Black 31.9%
White British 25.2%
Mixed 18.9%
White Other 12%
Asian 7.5%
Other 4.5%
What this means
Schools are 12pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
74.8% Minority pupils now
84.7% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
26.7% Primary WBI
23.1% Secondary WBI
Slowing diversification. Primary schools are less diverse than secondary.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at +0.3pp/year. WBI share stable or increasing in schools.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 28.1% vs school 25.2% (-2.9pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
245 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
8.13 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
120 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in London by supported asylum.