Trend
-262 Latest quarter change
+1,070 Change across series
48 Official data points
Manchester
Lucy Powell
3 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Manchester.
1,606 people housed on asylum support in Manchester
Rank 6 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 27.24 per 10,000 puts Manchester in the 88th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. 782 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £88M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Manchester
£31.6Mestimated hotel costs/year
£4.1Msubsistence payments/year
£1.9MLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 1,606 people on asylum support in Manchester (1.50% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Manchester: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 707
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 117
Contingency accommodation 782
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 1,077
Afghan programme 417
Resettlement cumulative 13
Population context
All pathways total 3,100
Share of local population 0.53%
Ethnic composition projection
Manchester: WBI 48.7% (2021) → 16.9% (2051). 80% CI: 15–19.6%.
Ethnic composition: Manchester
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Manchester
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Manchester ranges from 34.5% to 37.3% by 2051. That is a 2.8pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 35.7% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 23.7% (2021) → 41.9% (2051). Christian 38.5% → 10.0%.
Religion: Manchester
Christian No religion Muslim
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
31.4% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.81). 81.7% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Manchester
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
high immigration gateway: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.
Census 2021 mobility: 13.2% moved within UK, 2.3% arrived from abroad
white other 16.1% internal, 5.1% international
other 12.5% internal, 4.5% international
mixed 14.8% internal, 1.8% international
white british 14.9% internal, 0.5% international
asian 9.9% internal, 5% international
black 9.6% internal, 2.2% international
Why Manchester is changing
-10.6ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Manchester on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 58.6%
Mixed 61%
White Other 69.4%
Other 48.3%
Homeownership rate
White British 40.3%
Mixed 23.6%
White Other 32.5%
Other 19%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 36.5%
Mixed 37.5%
White Other 46.4%
Other 41%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 91,885 pupils. 29.8% White British. Schools are 18.9pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 29.8%
Asian 27.9%
Black 18.2%
Mixed 10%
Other 8.8%
White Other 5.4%
What this means
Schools are 19pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
70.2% Minority pupils now
76.7% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
30.5% Primary WBI
27.8% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -0.87pp/year. Gradual diversification in school-age population.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 33.5% vs school 29.8% (-3.7pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
1,606 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
27.24 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
782 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in North West by supported asylum.