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North West

Manchester

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Lucy Powell
Lucy PowellLabour (Co-op) · Manchester Central

3 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Manchester.

1,509 people on asylum support in Manchester

Rank 6 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 25.65 per 10,000 puts Manchester in the 88th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. 126 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. 708 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). Accommodation and support for 1,509 people at £107 per person per day is about £58.9M a year.

What asylum costs Manchester

£34.1Mestimated hotel costs/year
£3.9Msubsistence payments/year
£1.8MLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 1,509 people on asylum support in Manchester(1.62% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Manchester: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

1,846
2,3451,5637820Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Sept 2023Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 2014776
Jun 2014779
Sept 2014794
Dec 2014883
Mar 2015926
Jun 2015934
Sept 20151,029
Dec 20151,103
Mar 20161,079
Jun 20161,107
Sept 20161,138
Dec 20161,177
Mar 20171,123
Jun 20171,072
Sept 20171,046
Dec 20171,053
Mar 20181,200
Jun 20181,160
Sept 20181,160
Dec 20181,087
Mar 20191,124
Jun 20191,059
Sept 2019987
Dec 2019985
Mar 2020942
Jun 20201,026
Sept 20201,048
Dec 20201,034
Mar 20211,013
Jun 2021978
Sept 2021956
Dec 20211,067
Mar 20221,004
Jun 20221,042
Sept 20221,093
Dec 20221,968
Mar 20231,982
Jun 20232,068
Sept 20232,345
Dec 20231,714
Mar 20241,499
Jun 20241,627
Sept 20242,084
Dec 20241,985
Mar 20251,720
Jun 20251,997
Sept 20252,108
Dec 20251,846

Trend

-262Latest quarter change
+1,070Change across series
48Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation675
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only126
Contingency accommodation708

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
1,509
Homes for Ukraine
1,106
Afghan programme
410
Resettlement cumulative
13

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine1,106
Afghan programme410
Resettlement cumulative13

Population context

All pathways total3,025
Share of local population0.51%

Ethnic composition projection

Manchester: White British 48.7% (2021) to 16.1% (2051). 80% CI: 14, 18.9%.

Ethnic composition: Manchester

016324864% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 9% in 2061White Other 4% in 2061Asian 33% in 2061Black 30% in 2061Mixed 6% in 2061Other 17% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Manchester

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
59%
17%
11%
2021
49%
8%
21%
12%
2031proj
37%
25%
16%
2041proj
25%
29%
21%
11%
2051proj
16%
32%
26%
14%
2061proj
9%
33%
30%
17%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Manchester ranges from34.5% to 37.3%by 2051. That is a 2.8pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 35.7% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 23.7% (2021) → 41.9% (2051). Christian 38.5% → 10.0%.

Religion: Manchester

516283951%Census 2021Christian 10% in 2051No religion 46% in 2051Muslim 42% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslim

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

31.4% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.81). 81.7% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Manchester

2638506274%Census 2021UK-born 32% in 2051Foreign-born 68% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

high immigration gateway: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.

Census 2021 mobility: 13.2% moved within UK, 2.3% arrived from abroad
white other16.1% internal, 5.1% international
other12.5% internal, 4.5% international
mixed14.8% internal, 1.8% international
white british14.9% internal, 0.5% international
asian9.9% internal, 5% international
black9.6% internal, 2.2% international

Why Manchester is changing

-10.6pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
+1.7pp
Local migration
-5.9pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Manchester on UK Demographics →