asylumstatsFollow the money
London

Merton

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Sarah Dyke
Sarah DykeLiberal Democrats · Glastonbury and Somerton
209 people on asylum support in Merton

Rank 129 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 9.55 per 10,000 puts Merton in the 61st percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. 23 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. 118 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). Accommodation and support for 209 people at £107 per person per day is about £8.2M a year.

What asylum costs Merton

£4.7Mestimated hotel costs/year
£534Ksubsistence payments/year
£251KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 209 people on asylum support in Merton(0.22% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Merton: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

302
3802531270Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Mar 2023Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 201463
Jun 201450
Sept 201438
Dec 201443
Mar 201539
Jun 201536
Sept 201527
Dec 201529
Mar 201630
Jun 201630
Sept 201632
Dec 201644
Mar 201742
Jun 201740
Sept 201737
Dec 201738
Mar 201843
Jun 201843
Sept 201847
Dec 201841
Mar 201935
Jun 201940
Sept 201962
Dec 201960
Mar 202070
Jun 202080
Sept 202089
Dec 202090
Mar 2021112
Jun 2021111
Sept 2021105
Dec 2021153
Mar 2022132
Jun 2022145
Sept 2022151
Dec 2022368
Mar 2023380
Jun 2023377
Sept 2023341
Dec 2023294
Mar 2024313
Jun 2024316
Sept 2024306
Dec 2024317
Mar 2025303
Jun 2025286
Sept 2025325
Dec 2025302

Trend

-23Latest quarter change
+239Change across series
48Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation68
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only23
Contingency accommodation118

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
209
Homes for Ukraine
1,654
Afghan programme
17
Resettlement cumulative
18

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine1,654
Afghan programme17
Resettlement cumulative18

Population context

All pathways total1,880
Share of local population0.86%

Ethnic composition projection

Merton: White British 41.2% (2021) to 23.0% (2051). 80% CI: 22, 26.1%.

Ethnic composition: Merton

013274053% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 18% in 2061White Other 16% in 2061Asian 20% in 2061Black 9% in 2061Mixed 18% in 2061Other 19% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Merton

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
48%
17%
18%
12%
2021
41%
19%
19%
11%
2031proj
35%
19%
19%
11%
2041proj
29%
19%
20%
11%
11%
11%
2051proj
23%
18%
20%
10%
14%
15%
2061proj
18%
16%
20%
9%
18%
19%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Merton ranges from25.9% to 30.4%by 2051. That is a 4.5pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 27.8% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 10.8% (2021) → 15.3% (2051). Christian 50.6% → 22.3%.

Religion: Merton

015304661%Census 2021Christian 22% in 2051No religion 56% in 2051Muslim 15% in 2051Hindu 4% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslimHindu

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

40.9% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.86). 78.5% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Merton

1934506681%Census 2021UK-born 24% in 2051Foreign-born 76% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

high immigration gateway: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.

Census 2021 mobility: 9.9% moved within UK, 1.4% arrived from abroad
white other13.8% internal, 2.5% international
other10.3% internal, 2.6% international
mixed10.3% internal, 1.4% international
asian8.6% internal, 2% international
white british9.4% internal, 0.5% international
black7% internal, 1% international

Why Merton is changing

-7.2pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
+2.5pp
Local migration
-3.3pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Merton on UK Demographics →