Trend
-23 Latest quarter change
+239 Change across series
48 Official data points
Merton
Sarah Dyke
253 people housed on asylum support in Merton
Rank 120 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 11.58 per 10,000 puts Merton in the 64th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. 150 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £14M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Merton
£5.0Mestimated hotel costs/year
£647Ksubsistence payments/year
£304KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 253 people on asylum support in Merton (0.24% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Merton: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 77
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 26
Contingency accommodation 150
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 1,592
Afghan programme 17
Resettlement cumulative 18
Population context
All pathways total 1,862
Share of local population 0.85%
Ethnic composition projection
Merton: WBI 41.2% (2021) → 13.6% (2051). 80% CI: 16.7–19.2%.
Ethnic composition: Merton
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Merton
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Merton ranges from 25.9% to 30.4% by 2051. That is a 4.5pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 27.8% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 10.8% (2021) → 15.3% (2051). Christian 50.6% → 22.3%.
Religion: Merton
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
40.9% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.86). 78.5% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Merton
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
high immigration gateway: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.
Census 2021 mobility: 9.9% moved within UK, 1.4% arrived from abroad
white other 13.8% internal, 2.5% international
other 10.3% internal, 2.6% international
mixed 10.3% internal, 1.4% international
asian 8.6% internal, 2% international
white british 9.4% internal, 0.5% international
black 7% internal, 1% international
Why Merton is changing
-7.2ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Merton on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 65.6%
Mixed 71.1%
White Other 80.2%
Other 66.5%
Homeownership rate
White British 61.5%
Mixed 46.4%
White Other 43.2%
Other 44.8%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 49.5%
Mixed 47.1%
White Other 53.5%
Other 44.9%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 27,217 pupils. 28.5% White British. Schools are 12.7pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 28.5%
Asian 22.1%
White Other 19.5%
Mixed 13.6%
Black 12.7%
Other 3.6%
What this means
Schools are 13pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
71.5% Minority pupils now
83.4% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
29.4% Primary WBI
27% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -0.26pp/year. Gradual diversification in school-age population.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 36.4% vs school 28.5% (-7.9pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
253 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
11.58 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
150 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in London by supported asylum.