Trend
-114 Latest quarter change
+769 Change across series
48 Official data points
Newham
1,030 people housed on asylum support in Newham
Rank 23 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 27.5 per 10,000 puts Newham in the 88th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. 697 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £56M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Newham
£20.3Mestimated hotel costs/year
£2.6Msubsistence payments/year
£1.2MLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 1,030 people on asylum support in Newham (0.96% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Newham: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 280
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 53
Contingency accommodation 697
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 983
Afghan programme 51
Resettlement cumulative 67
Population context
All pathways total 2,064
Share of local population 0.55%
Ethnic composition projection
Newham: WBI 14.8% (2021) → 8.9% (2051). 80% CI: 6.8–8.2%.
Ethnic composition: Newham
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Newham
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Newham ranges from 9.1% to 9.8% by 2051. That is a 0.7pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 9.4% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 37.2% (2021) → 36.1% (2051). Christian 37.7% → 19.4%.
Religion: Newham
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
53.7% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.86). 65.4% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Newham
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
high immigration gateway: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.
Census 2021 mobility: 10.5% moved within UK, 2.2% arrived from abroad
white other 17.1% internal, 2.8% international
other 11.8% internal, 2.9% international
mixed 11.4% internal, 1.5% international
white british 12% internal, 0.5% international
asian 8.5% internal, 3% international
black 7.6% internal, 1% international
Why Newham is changing
-2ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Newham on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 61.1%
Mixed 69.6%
White Other 82.9%
Other 63.6%
Homeownership rate
White British 36.6%
Mixed 26.1%
White Other 21.4%
Other 27%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 39.8%
Mixed 40.8%
White Other 43.1%
Other 36.2%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 62,370 pupils. 5.1% White British. Schools are 9.7pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
Asian 51.4%
Black 17.6%
White Other 12.3%
Mixed 8.4%
Other 5.1%
White British 5.1%
What this means
Schools are 10pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
94.9% Minority pupils now
92.3% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
5.1% Primary WBI
4.9% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -0.04pp/year. Gradual diversification in school-age population.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 8.6% vs school 5.1% (-3.5pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
1,030 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
27.5 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
697 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in London by supported asylum.