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Yorkshire and The Humber

North East Lincolnshire

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Seamus Logan
Seamus LoganSNP · Aberdeenshire North and Moray East

135 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping North East Lincolnshire.

267 people on asylum support in North East Lincolnshire

Rank 110 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 16.68 per 10,000 puts North East Lincolnshire in the 75th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. 14 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 267 people at £107 per person per day is about £10.4M a year.

What asylum costs North East Lincolnshire

£6.0Mestimated hotel costs/year
£683Ksubsistence payments/year
£320KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 267 people on asylum support in North East Lincolnshire(0.29% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

North East Lincolnshire: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

277
277185920Dec 2014Dec 2025Peak Dec 2025Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Dec 20141
Mar 20151
Jun 20151
Sept 20151
Dec 201614
Mar 201723
Jun 201722
Sept 201750
Dec 201756
Mar 201861
Jun 201858
Sept 201853
Dec 201863
Mar 201972
Jun 201972
Sept 201977
Dec 201981
Mar 202077
Jun 202079
Sept 202084
Dec 202078
Mar 202191
Jun 2021102
Sept 202178
Dec 202180
Mar 202292
Jun 2022105
Sept 202296
Dec 202291
Mar 202387
Jun 2023155
Sept 2023155
Dec 2023141
Mar 2024161
Jun 2024195
Sept 2024203
Dec 2024215
Mar 2025213
Jun 2025224
Sept 2025242
Dec 2025277

Trend

+35Latest quarter change
+276Change across series
41Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation253
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only14
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
267
Homes for Ukraine
152
Afghan programme
45
Resettlement cumulative
53

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine152
Afghan programme45
Resettlement cumulative53

Population context

All pathways total464
Share of local population0.29%

Ethnic composition projection

North East Lincolnshire: White British 92.6% (2021) to 78.1% (2051). 80% CI: 77.4, 81.1%.

Ethnic composition: North East Lincolnshire

0255075100% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 69% in 2061White Other 12% in 2061Asian 3% in 2061Mixed 7% in 2061Other 7% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: North East Lincolnshire

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
95%
2021
93%
2031proj
89%
2041proj
85%
2051proj
78%
9%
2061proj
69%
12%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in North East Lincolnshire ranges from60.9% to 80.0%by 2051. That is a 19.1pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 68.0% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 1.3% (2021) → 2.0% (2051). Christian 48.1% → 9.8%.

Religion: North East Lincolnshire

527487092%Census 2021Christian 10% in 2051No religion 87% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religion

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

6.6% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.2). 96.1% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: North East Lincolnshire

226507498%Census 2021UK-born 64% in 2051Foreign-born 36% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 8.3% moved within UK, 0.4% arrived from abroad
black16.5% internal, 13.6% international
white other14.1% internal, 3.2% international
other11.3% internal, 4.1% international
asian10.1% internal, 3.4% international
mixed11.5% internal, 1.5% international
white british7.9% internal, 0.2% international

Why North East Lincolnshire is changing

-2.8pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-1.2pp
Local migration
+4.8pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View North East Lincolnshire on UK Demographics →