Trend
+35 Latest quarter change
+276 Change across series
41 Official data points
North East Lincolnshire
Seamus Logan
135 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping North East Lincolnshire.
282 people housed on asylum support in North East Lincolnshire
Rank 110 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 17.63 per 10,000 puts North East Lincolnshire in the 75th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £15M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs North East Lincolnshire
£5.6Mestimated hotel costs/year
£721Ksubsistence payments/year
£338KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 282 people on asylum support in North East Lincolnshire (0.26% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
North East Lincolnshire: asylum numbers still rising
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 276
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 6
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 146
Afghan programme 45
Resettlement cumulative 53
Population context
All pathways total 473
Share of local population 0.3%
Ethnic composition projection
North East Lincolnshire: WBI 92.6% (2021) → 74.2% (2051). 80% CI: 70.1–74.3%.
Ethnic composition: North East Lincolnshire
White British White Other Mixed 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: North East Lincolnshire
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in North East Lincolnshire ranges from 60.9% to 80.0% by 2051. That is a 19.1pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 68.0% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 1.3% (2021) → 2.0% (2051). Christian 48.1% → 9.8%.
Religion: North East Lincolnshire
Christian No religion
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
6.6% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.2). 96.1% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: North East Lincolnshire
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 8.3% moved within UK, 0.4% arrived from abroad
black 16.5% internal, 13.6% international
white other 14.1% internal, 3.2% international
other 11.3% internal, 4.1% international
asian 10.1% internal, 3.4% international
mixed 11.5% internal, 1.5% international
white british 7.9% internal, 0.2% international
Why North East Lincolnshire is changing
-2.8ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View North East Lincolnshire on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 56.4%
Mixed 64.1%
White Other 78.5%
Other 61.2%
Homeownership rate
White British 65.6%
Mixed 46.6%
White Other 35.9%
Other 37.4%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 21.3%
Mixed 30.2%
White Other 25.7%
Other 33.2%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 23,001 pupils. 86.4% White British. Schools are 6.2pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 86.4%
White Other 5%
Mixed 3.1%
Black 2.5%
Asian 1.6%
Other 1.4%
What this means
Schools are 6pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
13.6% Minority pupils now
25.8% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
85.7% Primary WBI
87.2% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -0.72pp/year. Gradual diversification in school-age population.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 90.5% vs school 86.4% (-4.1pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
282 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
17.63 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in Yorkshire and The Humber by supported asylum.