asylumstatsFollow the money
North West

Oldham

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Debbie Abrahams
Debbie AbrahamsLabour · Oldham East and Saddleworth

2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Oldham.

733 people on asylum support in Oldham

Rank 31 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 29.1 per 10,000 puts Oldham in the 90th percentile. That means this area carries more asylum seekers per head than 90% of the country. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2034. 23 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. 70 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). Accommodation and support for 733 people at £107 per person per day is about £28.6M a year.

What asylum costs Oldham

£16.5Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.9Msubsistence payments/year
£880KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 733 people on asylum support in Oldham(0.79% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Oldham: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

796
9146093050Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Dec 2022Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 2014506
Jun 2014539
Sept 2014587
Dec 2014620
Mar 2015626
Jun 2015637
Sept 2015660
Dec 2015682
Mar 2016692
Jun 2016684
Sept 2016683
Dec 2016693
Mar 2017718
Jun 2017699
Sept 2017715
Dec 2017762
Mar 2018848
Jun 2018865
Sept 2018870
Dec 2018853
Mar 2019847
Jun 2019801
Sept 2019777
Dec 2019720
Mar 2020756
Jun 2020780
Sept 2020777
Dec 2020760
Mar 2021684
Jun 2021649
Sept 2021595
Dec 2021631
Mar 2022657
Jun 2022726
Sept 2022739
Dec 2022914
Mar 2023910
Jun 2023836
Sept 2023856
Dec 2023717
Mar 2024721
Jun 2024829
Sept 2024843
Dec 2024841
Mar 2025740
Jun 2025779
Sept 2025795
Dec 2025796

Trend

+1Latest quarter change
+290Change across series
48Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation640
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only23
Contingency accommodation70

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
733
Homes for Ukraine
177
Afghan programme
58
Resettlement cumulative
0

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine177
Afghan programme58
Resettlement cumulative0

Population context

All pathways total968
Share of local population0.38%

Ethnic composition projection

Oldham: White British 65.2% (2021) to 29.9% (2051). White British minority by ~2034. 80% CI: 28.7, 33.4%.

Ethnic composition: Oldham

020406081% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 19% in 2061White Other 5% in 2061Asian 37% in 2061Black 22% in 2061Mixed 8% in 2061Other 9% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Oldham

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
76%
19%
2021
65%
25%
2031proj
54%
31%
2041proj
42%
36%
9%
2051proj
30%
38%
14%
2061proj
19%
37%
22%
8%
9%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Oldham ranges from39.8% to 47.4%by 2051. That is a 7.6pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 42.9% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 25.6% (2021) → 35.6% (2051). Christian 47.1% → 10.8%.

Religion: Oldham

619324558%Census 2021Christian 11% in 2051No religion 53% in 2051Muslim 36% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslim

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

16.6% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.55). 89.3% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Oldham

1231506988%Census 2021UK-born 52% in 2051Foreign-born 48% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Low foreign-born share with significant ethnic diversity suggests second/third-generation growth is the primary driver. Less sensitive to immigration policy changes.

Census 2021 mobility: 6% moved within UK, 0.6% arrived from abroad
black10.1% internal, 4% international
other9.4% internal, 2.2% international
white other9.4% internal, 2.1% international
mixed9% internal, 0.8% international
asian4.9% internal, 1.2% international
white british5.9% internal, 0.1% international

Why Oldham is changing

-10.3pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
+0.4pp
Local migration
-4.3pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Oldham on UK Demographics →