Trend
+1 Latest quarter change
+443 Change across series
48 Official data points
Pendle
Jonathan Hinder
434 people housed on asylum support in Pendle
Rank 74 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 43.5 per 10,000 puts Pendle in the 97th percentile. That means this area carries more asylum seekers per head than 90% of the country. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2034. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £24M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Pendle
£8.5Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.1Msubsistence payments/year
£521KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 434 people on asylum support in Pendle (0.41% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Pendle: asylum numbers still rising
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 431
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 3
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 148
Afghan programme 66
Resettlement cumulative 125
Population context
All pathways total 648
Share of local population 0.65%
Ethnic composition projection
Pendle: WBI 66.1% (2021) → 29.3% (2051). White British minority by ~2034. 80% CI: 27.4–30.9%.
Ethnic composition: Pendle
White British White Other Asian Mixed 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Pendle
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Pendle ranges from 31.4% to 44.6% by 2051. That is a 13.2pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 36.1% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 27.5% (2021) → 51.6% (2051). Christian 41.4% → 9.1%.
Religion: Pendle
Christian No religion Muslim
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
17.7% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.49). 87.6% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Pendle
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
emerging diversity: Low foreign-born share with significant ethnic diversity suggests second/third-generation growth is the primary driver. Less sensitive to immigration policy changes.
Census 2021 mobility: 7.1% moved within UK, 1% arrived from abroad
other 11.2% internal, 11% international
black 10.2% internal, 5.7% international
white other 9.6% internal, 3.3% international
mixed 8.9% internal, 0.8% international
asian 5.5% internal, 2.2% international
white british 7.4% internal, 0.2% international
Why Pendle is changing
-11.1ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Pendle on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 54.7%
Mixed 65.3%
White Other 77.2%
Other 57.8%
Homeownership rate
White British 67.3%
Mixed 44.8%
White Other 29.3%
Other 30.3%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 25.5%
Mixed 29.8%
White Other 22.2%
Other 21.6%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
Crime
96.8 crimes per 1,000 residents (72th percentile). Down 2.2% year-on-year.
Crime breakdown
Key metrics
96.8 Per 1,000 residents
156 Hate crimes
35.4 Violent crime /1,000
Source
ONS recorded crime, Year ending March 2024. Correlation with asylum dispersal does not imply causation.
SEND pressure
EHCP rate: 418 per 10,000 pupils (60th percentile). 5-year growth: +41.2%.
Academic year 2023/24 Rapid growth
Primary need types
Key metrics
1,342 Total EHCPs
27.4% ASD as primary need
Source
DfE SEN2 return, Academic year 2023/24. Rising EHCPs reflect multiple factors, not solely population change.
Social care
Adult social care: £568 per capita (72th percentile).
£568 Gross spend per capita
402 Residential per 10k 65+
18.3 Quality of life (ASCOF 1A)
648 Delayed transfer days
Source
NHS Digital SALT/ASCOF, 2023/24.
Pressure index
Combined score across 5 domains: 80.1/100.
High pressure
43.5 Asylum rate /10k
-1.11pp WB annual change
96.8 Crime /1,000
+41.2% SEND 5yr growth
£568 ASC /capita
Methodology
Each domain converted to percentile rank (0-100). Composite = unweighted mean. Measures correlation, not causation.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
434 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
43.5 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North West by supported asylum.