asylumstatsFollow the money
North West

Pendle

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Jonathan Hinder
Jonathan HinderLabour · Pendle and Clitheroe
441 people on asylum support in Pendle

Rank 69 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 44.01 per 10,000 puts Pendle in the 98th percentile. That means this area carries more asylum seekers per head than 90% of the country. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2034. 2 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 441 people at £107 per person per day is about £17.2M a year.

What asylum costs Pendle

£10.0Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.1Msubsistence payments/year
£529KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 441 people on asylum support in Pendle(0.47% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Pendle: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

448
5253501750Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Mar 2024Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 20145
Jun 20146
Sept 20148
Dec 201412
Mar 20156
Jun 20155
Sept 20155
Dec 20155
Mar 20165
Jun 20165
Sept 20165
Dec 201616
Mar 201721
Jun 201722
Sept 201721
Dec 201723
Mar 201824
Jun 201834
Sept 201844
Dec 201839
Mar 201954
Jun 201965
Sept 201967
Dec 201949
Mar 202060
Jun 202061
Sept 202055
Dec 202056
Mar 202162
Jun 202190
Sept 202191
Dec 2021138
Mar 2022191
Jun 2022195
Sept 2022227
Dec 2022213
Mar 2023222
Jun 2023414
Sept 2023447
Dec 2023509
Mar 2024525
Jun 2024506
Sept 2024468
Dec 2024421
Mar 2025454
Jun 2025451
Sept 2025447
Dec 2025448

Trend

+1Latest quarter change
+443Change across series
48Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation439
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only2
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
441
Homes for Ukraine
149
Afghan programme
66
Resettlement cumulative
125

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine149
Afghan programme66
Resettlement cumulative125

Population context

All pathways total656
Share of local population0.65%

Ethnic composition projection

Pendle: White British 66.1% (2021) to 28.7% (2051). White British minority by ~2034. 80% CI: 26.9, 32.3%.

Ethnic composition: Pendle

021416282% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 19% in 2061White Other 7% in 2061Asian 64% in 2061Mixed 5% in 2061Other 5% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Pendle

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
77%
19%
2021
66%
27%
2031proj
54%
37%
2041proj
41%
47%
2051proj
29%
57%
2061proj
19%
64%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Pendle ranges from31.4% to 44.6%by 2051. That is a 13.2pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 36.1% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 27.5% (2021) → 51.6% (2051). Christian 41.4% → 9.1%.

Religion: Pendle

417304357%Census 2021Christian 9% in 2051No religion 39% in 2051Muslim 52% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslim

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

17.7% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.49). 87.6% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Pendle

1331506987%Census 2021UK-born 37% in 2051Foreign-born 63% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Low foreign-born share with significant ethnic diversity suggests second/third-generation growth is the primary driver. Less sensitive to immigration policy changes.

Census 2021 mobility: 7.1% moved within UK, 1% arrived from abroad
other11.2% internal, 11% international
black10.2% internal, 5.7% international
white other9.6% internal, 3.3% international
mixed8.9% internal, 0.8% international
asian5.5% internal, 2.2% international
white british7.4% internal, 0.2% international

Why Pendle is changing

-11.1pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
+0.2pp
Local migration
-4.9pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Pendle on UK Demographics →