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North West

Preston

Updated 31 Dec 2025 · Home Office
Sir Mark Hendrick
Sir Mark Hendrick Labour (Co-op) · Preston
429 people housed on asylum support in Preston

Rank 75 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 26.34 per 10,000 puts Preston in the 87th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2036. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £23M per year for this area alone.

What asylum costs Preston

£8.4Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.1Msubsistence payments/year
£515KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 429 people on asylum support in Preston (0.40% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.

Preston: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

429
431 287 144 0 Mar 2014 Dec 2025 Peak Jun 2024 Rwanda scheme Albania deal Bibby Stockholm Rwanda scrapped

Trend

+20 Latest quarter change
+426 Change across series
48 Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation 415
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 14
Contingency accommodation 0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
429
Homes for Ukraine
179
Afghan programme
216
Resettlement cumulative
59

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine 179
Afghan programme 216
Resettlement cumulative 59

Population context

All pathways total 824
Share of local population 0.51%

Ethnic composition projection

Preston: WBI 66.1% (2021) → 33.5% (2051). White British minority by ~2036. 80% CI: 32.1–36.6%.

Ethnic composition: Preston

0 20 40 61 81 % of population Census 2021 Illustrative White British 24% White Other 23% Asian 38% Black 7% Mixed 5% 20112021203120412051
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Preston

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
76%
16%
2021
66%
20%
2031 proj
56%
9%
25%
2041 proj
44%
13%
30%
2051 proj
34%
18%
34%
2061 proj
24%
23%
38%
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Preston ranges from 39.7% to 50.5% by 2051. That is a 10.8pp spread.

Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 43.9% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 17.0% (2021) → 30.4% (2051). Christian 50.4% → 14.6%.

Religion: Preston

0 14 28 42 55 % Census 2021 Christian 15% No religion 50% Muslim 30% Hindu 4% 2021203120412051
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

19.3% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.58). 87.6% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Preston

14 32 50 68 86 % Census 2021 UK-born 48% Foreign-born 53% 2021203120412051
UK-born Foreign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Low foreign-born share with significant ethnic diversity suggests second/third-generation growth is the primary driver. Less sensitive to immigration policy changes.

Census 2021 mobility: 10.3% moved within UK, 1.6% arrived from abroad
black 18.9% internal, 7.9% international
other 19.1% internal, 7.1% international
white other 13.4% internal, 3.6% international
mixed 13.1% internal, 1.3% international
asian 9.1% internal, 4.1% international
white british 9.7% internal, 0.3% international

Why Preston is changing

-9.7pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
+0.3pp
Local migration
-3.7pp

White British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profile School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics. View Preston on UK Demographics →