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North West

Rochdale

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Paul Waugh
Paul WaughLabour (Co-op) · Rochdale
727 people on asylum support in Rochdale

Rank 32 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 30.59 per 10,000 puts Rochdale in the 91st percentile. That means this area carries more asylum seekers per head than 90% of the country. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2041. 19 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 727 people at £107 per person per day is about £28.4M a year.

What asylum costs Rochdale

£16.4Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.9Msubsistence payments/year
£872KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 727 people on asylum support in Rochdale(0.78% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Rochdale: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

719
1,0857233620Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Jun 2016Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 2014550
Jun 2014615
Sept 2014680
Dec 2014880
Mar 2015986
Jun 2015984
Sept 2015999
Dec 20151,044
Mar 20161,059
Jun 20161,085
Sept 20161,056
Dec 20161,061
Mar 20171,007
Jun 2017987
Sept 2017983
Dec 2017956
Mar 20181,046
Jun 20181,031
Sept 2018974
Dec 2018996
Mar 2019950
Jun 2019968
Sept 2019896
Dec 2019885
Mar 2020866
Jun 2020908
Sept 2020916
Dec 2020863
Mar 2021822
Jun 2021781
Sept 2021766
Dec 2021786
Mar 2022808
Jun 2022777
Sept 2022750
Dec 2022866
Mar 2023851
Jun 2023884
Sept 2023950
Dec 2023820
Mar 2024834
Jun 2024802
Sept 2024825
Dec 2024886
Mar 2025833
Jun 2025814
Sept 2025731
Dec 2025719

Trend

-12Latest quarter change
+169Change across series
48Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation708
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only19
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
727
Homes for Ukraine
194
Afghan programme
16
Resettlement cumulative
0

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine194
Afghan programme16
Resettlement cumulative0

Population context

All pathways total937
Share of local population0.39%

Ethnic composition projection

Rochdale: White British 70.0% (2021) to 37.7% (2051). White British minority by ~2041. 80% CI: 36.3, 41.3%.

Ethnic composition: Rochdale

021426384% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 27% in 2061White Other 6% in 2061Asian 28% in 2061Black 19% in 2061Mixed 9% in 2061Other 10% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Rochdale

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
79%
15%
2021
70%
18%
2031proj
61%
23%
2041proj
49%
26%
9%
2051proj
38%
28%
14%
2061proj
27%
28%
19%
9%
10%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Rochdale ranges from44.6% to 53.8%by 2051. That is a 9.2pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 48.3% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 19.7% (2021) → 27.2% (2051). Christian 49.1% → 12.6%.

Religion: Rochdale

822365064%Census 2021Christian 13% in 2051No religion 59% in 2051Muslim 27% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslim

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

15.5% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.54). 90.5% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Rochdale

1130507090%Census 2021UK-born 54% in 2051Foreign-born 46% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 6.8% moved within UK, 0.7% arrived from abroad
black12.1% internal, 3.4% international
other8.7% internal, 3.4% international
mixed9.8% internal, 1.1% international
white other8.2% internal, 1.7% international
asian5.8% internal, 1.5% international
white british6.5% internal, 0.1% international

Why Rochdale is changing

-8.6pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
+0.1pp
Local migration
-2.3pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Rochdale on UK Demographics →