Trend
-12 Latest quarter change
+169 Change across series
48 Official data points
Rochdale
Paul Waugh
715 people housed on asylum support in Rochdale
Rank 33 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 30.35 per 10,000 puts Rochdale in the 90th percentile. That means this area carries more asylum seekers per head than 90% of the country. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2038. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £39M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Rochdale
£14.1Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.8Msubsistence payments/year
£858KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 715 people on asylum support in Rochdale (0.67% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Rochdale: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 700
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 15
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 180
Afghan programme 16
Resettlement cumulative 0
Population context
All pathways total 911
Share of local population 0.39%
Ethnic composition projection
Rochdale: WBI 70.0% (2021) → 29.9% (2051). White British minority by ~2038. 80% CI: 34.4–38%.
Ethnic composition: Rochdale
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Rochdale
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Rochdale ranges from 44.6% to 53.8% by 2051. That is a 9.2pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 48.3% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 19.7% (2021) → 27.2% (2051). Christian 49.1% → 12.6%.
Religion: Rochdale
Christian No religion Muslim
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
15.5% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.54). 90.5% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Rochdale
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 6.8% moved within UK, 0.7% arrived from abroad
black 12.1% internal, 3.4% international
other 8.7% internal, 3.4% international
mixed 9.8% internal, 1.1% international
white other 8.2% internal, 1.7% international
asian 5.8% internal, 1.5% international
white british 6.5% internal, 0.1% international
Why Rochdale is changing
-8.6ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Rochdale on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 57.3%
Mixed 63.7%
White Other 67%
Other 52.2%
Homeownership rate
White British 62%
Mixed 36%
White Other 45.1%
Other 40.4%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 26.2%
Mixed 29.3%
White Other 29.6%
Other 28.9%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 37,780 pupils. 53.1% White British. Schools are 16.9pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 53.1%
Asian 26.8%
Black 7.7%
Mixed 6.2%
White Other 4.2%
Other 1.9%
What this means
Schools are 17pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
46.9% Minority pupils now
57.5% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
52.2% Primary WBI
54.3% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -1.14pp/year. Rapid diversification in young cohorts. The demographic wave is accelerating.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 58.3% vs school 53.1% (-5.2pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
715 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
30.35 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North West by supported asylum.