Trend
-2 Latest quarter change
+221 Change across series
39 Official data points
Rossendale
Andy MacNae
244 people housed on asylum support in Rossendale
Rank 124 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 33.4 per 10,000 puts Rossendale in the 92nd percentile. That means this area carries more asylum seekers per head than 90% of the country. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £13M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Rossendale
£4.8Mestimated hotel costs/year
£624Ksubsistence payments/year
£293KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 244 people on asylum support in Rossendale (0.23% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Rossendale: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 244
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 0
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 105
Afghan programme 26
Resettlement cumulative 40
Population context
All pathways total 375
Share of local population 0.51%
Ethnic composition projection
Rossendale: WBI 90.5% (2021) → 84.7% (2051). 80% CI: 78.5–80.9%.
Ethnic composition: Rossendale
White British Asian Mixed 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Rossendale
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Rossendale ranges from 44.0% to 70.2% by 2051. That is a 26.2pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 52.5% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 5.2% (2021) → 5.2% (2051). Christian 51.5% → 11.1%.
Religion: Rossendale
Christian No religion Muslim
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
5% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.24). 97.8% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Rossendale
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 7.3% moved within UK, 0.3% arrived from abroad
mixed 12.8% internal, 0.4% international
other 8.3% internal, 3.4% international
black 9.8% internal, 1.2% international
white other 7.4% internal, 1.6% international
white british 7.3% internal, 0.2% international
asian 6.5% internal, 0.9% international
Why Rossendale is changing
-1.5ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Rossendale on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 60.4%
Mixed 69.3%
White Other 63.6%
Other 51.7%
Homeownership rate
White British 68.4%
Mixed 62%
White Other 60.7%
Other 47.9%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 30.3%
Mixed 38%
White Other 42.3%
Other 38.3%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
Crime
68.2 crimes per 1,000 residents (24th percentile). Down 0.4% year-on-year.
Crime breakdown
Key metrics
68.2 Per 1,000 residents
54 Hate crimes
24.8 Violent crime /1,000
Source
ONS recorded crime, Year ending March 2024. Correlation with asylum dispersal does not imply causation.
SEND pressure
EHCP rate: 348 per 10,000 pupils (20th percentile). 5-year growth: +34.2%.
Academic year 2023/24
Primary need types
Key metrics
842 Total EHCPs
31.8% ASD as primary need
Source
DfE SEN2 return, Academic year 2023/24. Rising EHCPs reflect multiple factors, not solely population change.
Social care
Adult social care: £498 per capita (28th percentile).
£498 Gross spend per capita
362 Residential per 10k 65+
19.2 Quality of life (ASCOF 1A)
524 Delayed transfer days
Source
NHS Digital SALT/ASCOF, 2023/24.
Pressure index
Combined score across 5 domains: 41.6/100.
33.4 Asylum rate /10k
-0.15pp WB annual change
68.2 Crime /1,000
+34.2% SEND 5yr growth
£498 ASC /capita
Methodology
Each domain converted to percentile rank (0-100). Composite = unweighted mean. Measures correlation, not causation.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
244 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
33.4 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North West by supported asylum.