Trend
-4 Latest quarter change
+68 Change across series
48 Official data points
Rotherham
Sarah Champion
403 people housed on asylum support in Rotherham
Rank 81 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 14.57 per 10,000 puts Rotherham in the 69th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £22M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Rotherham
£7.9Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.0Msubsistence payments/year
£484KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 403 people on asylum support in Rotherham (0.38% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Rotherham: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 394
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 9
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 282
Afghan programme 63
Resettlement cumulative 48
Population context
All pathways total 748
Share of local population 0.27%
Ethnic composition projection
Rotherham: WBI 88.3% (2021) → 72.6% (2051). 80% CI: 65.8–69.2%.
Ethnic composition: Rotherham
White British White Other Asian Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Rotherham
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Rotherham ranges from 64.0% to 76.2% by 2051. That is a 12.2pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 68.9% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 5.3% (2021) → 4.9% (2051). Christian 51.6% → 7.6%.
Religion: Rotherham
Christian No religion Muslim
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
6.8% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.29). 95.9% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Rotherham
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 6.9% moved within UK, 0.3% arrived from abroad
black 13.1% internal, 2.7% international
white other 11.8% internal, 2.6% international
other 11.1% internal, 2.5% international
mixed 11.3% internal, 0.6% international
asian 6.7% internal, 1.3% international
white british 6.6% internal, 0.1% international
Why Rotherham is changing
-3.7ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Rotherham on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 57.5%
Mixed 67.5%
White Other 69.2%
Other 49.1%
Homeownership rate
White British 65.2%
Mixed 46.6%
White Other 38.5%
Other 30.4%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 22.9%
Mixed 28.9%
White Other 29%
Other 26.3%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 44,901 pupils. 76.8% White British. Schools are 11.5pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 76.8%
Asian 9%
White Other 5.4%
Mixed 4%
Black 3.6%
Other 1.3%
What this means
Schools are 11pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
23.2% Minority pupils now
33.2% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
76.1% Primary WBI
77.4% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -0.67pp/year. Gradual diversification in school-age population.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 81.6% vs school 76.8% (-4.8pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
403 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
14.57 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in Yorkshire and The Humber by supported asylum.