Trend
+14 Latest quarter change
+158 Change across series
48 Official data points
Salford
Rebecca Long Bailey
681 people housed on asylum support in Salford
Rank 38 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 23.14 per 10,000 puts Salford in the 85th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2036. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £37M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Salford
£13.4Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.7Msubsistence payments/year
£817KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 681 people on asylum support in Salford (0.64% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Salford: asylum numbers still rising
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 655
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 26
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 444
Afghan programme 165
Resettlement cumulative 2
Population context
All pathways total 1,290
Share of local population 0.44%
Ethnic composition projection
Salford: WBI 74.0% (2021) → 23.7% (2051). White British minority by ~2036. 80% CI: 36.8–41.7%.
Ethnic composition: Salford
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Salford
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Salford ranges from 52.2% to 60.3% by 2051. That is a 8.1pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 55.5% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 5.3% (2021) → 17.3% (2051). Christian 50.8% → 9.2%.
Religion: Salford
Christian No religion Muslim
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
19% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.54). 88.6% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Salford
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 12% moved within UK, 1.4% arrived from abroad
other 16% internal, 6% international
asian 14% internal, 6.9% international
black 14.8% internal, 4.8% international
mixed 17.5% internal, 2.1% international
white other 15.5% internal, 3.9% international
white british 10.8% internal, 0.3% international
Why Salford is changing
-10.4ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Salford on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 62.1%
Mixed 71.2%
White Other 77.3%
Other 57.6%
Homeownership rate
White British 50.3%
Mixed 29.1%
White Other 31%
Other 23%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 32.1%
Mixed 43.6%
White Other 42.8%
Other 40.9%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 38,185 pupils. 62.1% White British. Schools are 11.9pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 62.1%
Mixed 10.6%
Black 9.9%
White Other 7.5%
Asian 5.6%
Other 4.3%
What this means
Schools are 12pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
37.9% Minority pupils now
60.8% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
59.6% Primary WBI
65.1% Secondary WBI
Accelerating diversification. Primary schools are significantly more diverse than secondary.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -1.38pp/year. Rapid diversification in young cohorts. The demographic wave is accelerating.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 69% vs school 62.1% (-6.9pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
681 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
23.14 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North West by supported asylum.