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North West

Salford

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Rebecca Long Bailey
Rebecca Long BaileyLabour · Salford
656 people on asylum support in Salford

Rank 43 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 22.09 per 10,000 puts Salford in the 85th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2048. 24 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 656 people at £107 per person per day is about £25.6M a year.

What asylum costs Salford

£14.8Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.7Msubsistence payments/year
£787KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 656 people on asylum support in Salford(0.70% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Salford: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

706
9446293150Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Sept 2018Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 2014548
Jun 2014533
Sept 2014537
Dec 2014561
Mar 2015567
Jun 2015592
Sept 2015641
Dec 2015711
Mar 2016763
Jun 2016753
Sept 2016737
Dec 2016749
Mar 2017725
Jun 2017720
Sept 2017752
Dec 2017786
Mar 2018916
Jun 2018908
Sept 2018944
Dec 2018912
Mar 2019943
Jun 2019894
Sept 2019862
Dec 2019859
Mar 2020873
Jun 2020906
Sept 2020918
Dec 2020876
Mar 2021828
Jun 2021787
Sept 2021766
Dec 2021780
Mar 2022804
Jun 2022811
Sept 2022789
Dec 2022794
Mar 2023765
Jun 2023858
Sept 2023830
Dec 2023786
Mar 2024849
Jun 2024751
Sept 2024730
Dec 2024740
Mar 2025752
Jun 2025701
Sept 2025692
Dec 2025706

Trend

+14Latest quarter change
+158Change across series
48Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation632
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only24
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
656
Homes for Ukraine
456
Afghan programme
168
Resettlement cumulative
2

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine456
Afghan programme168
Resettlement cumulative2

Population context

All pathways total1,280
Share of local population0.43%

Ethnic composition projection

Salford: White British 74.0% (2021) to 47.5% (2051). White British minority by ~2048. 80% CI: 45, 52.6%.

Ethnic composition: Salford

022456789% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 38% in 2061White Other 10% in 2061Asian 8% in 2061Black 23% in 2061Mixed 9% in 2061Other 13% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Salford

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
84%
2021
74%
8%
2031proj
66%
10%
9%
2041proj
57%
11%
13%
2051proj
48%
11%
18%
9%
2061proj
38%
10%
23%
9%
13%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Salford ranges from52.2% to 60.3%by 2051. That is a 8.1pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 55.5% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 5.3% (2021) → 17.3% (2051). Christian 50.8% → 9.2%.

Religion: Salford

019375574%Census 2021Christian 9% in 2051No religion 69% in 2051Muslim 17% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslim

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

19% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.54). 88.6% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Salford

1432506886%Census 2021UK-born 48% in 2051Foreign-born 52% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 12% moved within UK, 1.4% arrived from abroad
other16% internal, 6% international
asian14% internal, 6.9% international
black14.8% internal, 4.8% international
mixed17.5% internal, 2.1% international
white other15.5% internal, 3.9% international
white british10.8% internal, 0.3% international

Why Salford is changing

-10.4pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.4pp
Local migration
-3.7pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Salford on UK Demographics →