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North West

Sefton

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Bill Esterson
Bill EstersonLabour · Sefton Central
411 people on asylum support in Sefton

Rank 75 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 14.29 per 10,000 puts Sefton in the 70th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. 12 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 411 people at £107 per person per day is about £16.1M a year.

What asylum costs Sefton

£9.3Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.1Msubsistence payments/year
£493KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 411 people on asylum support in Sefton(0.44% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Sefton: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

434
4342891450Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Dec 2025Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 20142
Jun 20142
Sept 20143
Dec 20143
Mar 20158
Jun 20158
Sept 20156
Dec 20157
Mar 201611
Jun 201620
Sept 201623
Dec 201638
Mar 201755
Jun 201760
Sept 201772
Dec 201767
Mar 201898
Jun 2018123
Sept 2018128
Dec 2018169
Mar 2019184
Jun 2019173
Sept 2019151
Dec 2019182
Mar 2020191
Jun 2020273
Sept 2020253
Dec 2020224
Mar 2021189
Jun 2021180
Sept 2021184
Dec 2021193
Mar 2022219
Jun 2022236
Sept 2022229
Dec 2022217
Mar 2023223
Jun 2023362
Sept 2023383
Dec 2023353
Mar 2024377
Jun 2024377
Sept 2024396
Dec 2024422
Mar 2025430
Jun 2025426
Sept 2025414
Dec 2025434

Trend

+20Latest quarter change
+432Change across series
48Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation399
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only12
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
411
Homes for Ukraine
431
Afghan programme
67
Resettlement cumulative
128

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine431
Afghan programme67
Resettlement cumulative128

Population context

All pathways total909
Share of local population0.32%

Ethnic composition projection

Sefton: White British 91.8% (2021) to 80.7% (2051). 80% CI: 80.2, 83.4%.

Ethnic composition: Sefton

0255075100% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 75% in 2061White Other 10% in 2061Mixed 7% in 2061Other 5% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Sefton

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
95%
2021
92%
2031proj
89%
2041proj
86%
2051proj
81%
8%
2061proj
75%
10%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Sefton ranges from68.6% to 82.1%by 2051. That is a 13.5pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 74.0% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 0.8% (2021) → 2.3% (2051). Christian 67.8% → 17.4%.

Religion: Sefton

1230486583%Census 2021Christian 17% in 2051No religion 78% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religion

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

6.4% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.22). 96.4% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Sefton

126507499%Census 2021UK-born 76% in 2051Foreign-born 24% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 7.1% moved within UK, 0.5% arrived from abroad
black15% internal, 5.8% international
other14.4% internal, 4% international
white other11% internal, 3.1% international
asian9.7% internal, 4% international
mixed9.6% internal, 1.7% international
white british6.7% internal, 0.3% international

Why Sefton is changing

-3pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-1.2pp
Local migration
+4.5pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Sefton on UK Demographics →