Trend
+20 Latest quarter change
+432 Change across series
48 Official data points
Sefton
Bill Esterson
417 people housed on asylum support in Sefton
Rank 77 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 14.57 per 10,000 puts Sefton in the 69th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £23M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Sefton
£8.2Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.1Msubsistence payments/year
£500KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 417 people on asylum support in Sefton (0.39% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Sefton: asylum numbers still rising
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 406
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 11
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 419
Afghan programme 71
Resettlement cumulative 128
Population context
All pathways total 907
Share of local population 0.32%
Ethnic composition projection
Sefton: WBI 91.8% (2021) → 77.6% (2051). 80% CI: 74.2–77.7%.
Ethnic composition: Sefton
White British White Other Mixed 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Sefton
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Sefton ranges from 68.6% to 82.1% by 2051. That is a 13.5pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 74.0% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 0.8% (2021) → 2.3% (2051). Christian 67.8% → 17.4%.
Religion: Sefton
Christian No religion
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
6.4% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.22). 96.4% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Sefton
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 7.1% moved within UK, 0.5% arrived from abroad
black 15% internal, 5.8% international
other 14.4% internal, 4% international
white other 11% internal, 3.1% international
asian 9.7% internal, 4% international
mixed 9.6% internal, 1.7% international
white british 6.7% internal, 0.3% international
Why Sefton is changing
-3ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Sefton on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 56%
Mixed 65.4%
White Other 70.3%
Other 56.8%
Homeownership rate
White British 68.6%
Mixed 49.7%
White Other 44.2%
Other 37.6%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 29.4%
Mixed 35.8%
White Other 38.3%
Other 33.6%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 40,061 pupils. 86.8% White British.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 86.8%
White Other 4.2%
Mixed 3.4%
Asian 2.5%
Black 1.9%
Other 1.3%
What this means
School and population ethnic composition are closely aligned.
13.2% Minority pupils now
25.5% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
86.5% Primary WBI
87% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -0.62pp/year. Gradual diversification in school-age population.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 89.6% vs school 86.8% (-2.8pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
417 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
14.57 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North West by supported asylum.