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North West

South Ribble

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Mr Paul Foster
Mr Paul FosterLabour · South Ribble

2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping South Ribble.

385 people on asylum support in South Ribble

Rank 79 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 32.75 per 10,000 puts South Ribble in the 92nd percentile. That means this area carries more asylum seekers per head than 90% of the country. 151 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). Accommodation and support for 385 people at £107 per person per day is about £15.0M a year.

What asylum costs South Ribble

£8.7Mestimated hotel costs/year
£985Ksubsistence payments/year
£462KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 385 people on asylum support in South Ribble(0.41% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

South Ribble: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

377
3912611300Mar 2015Dec 2025Peak Sept 2025Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 20154
Jun 20168
Sept 20168
Dec 20169
Mar 201716
Jun 201716
Sept 201714
Dec 201717
Mar 201817
Jun 201818
Sept 201825
Dec 201829
Mar 201946
Jun 201944
Sept 201952
Dec 201963
Mar 202054
Jun 202059
Sept 202059
Dec 202073
Mar 202163
Jun 202174
Sept 202172
Dec 202171
Mar 202273
Jun 202269
Sept 202296
Dec 2022272
Mar 2023283
Jun 2023278
Sept 2023323
Dec 2023286
Mar 2024275
Jun 2024334
Sept 2024369
Dec 2024346
Mar 2025312
Jun 2025389
Sept 2025391
Dec 2025377

Trend

-14Latest quarter change
+373Change across series
40Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation234
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only0
Contingency accommodation151

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
385
Homes for Ukraine
125
Afghan programme
78
Resettlement cumulative
49

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine125
Afghan programme78
Resettlement cumulative49

Population context

All pathways total588
Share of local population0.5%

Ethnic composition projection

South Ribble: White British 92.8% (2021) to 83.7% (2051). 80% CI: 83.6, 86.4%.

Ethnic composition: South Ribble

0255075100% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 78% in 2061White Other 4% in 2061Asian 5% in 2061Mixed 10% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianMixed 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: South Ribble

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
95%
2021
93%
2031proj
91%
2041proj
88%
2051proj
84%
2061proj
78%
10%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in South Ribble ranges from54.2% to 77.7%by 2051. That is a 23.5pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 62.5% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 1.0% (2021) → 1.9% (2051). Christian 65.1% → 14.8%.

Religion: South Ribble

1029486887%Census 2021Christian 15% in 2051No religion 82% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religion

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

5% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.2). 97.9% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: South Ribble

0255075100%Census 2021UK-born 71% in 2051Foreign-born 30% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 7.4% moved within UK, 0.3% arrived from abroad
black14.9% internal, 2.4% international
other13.3% internal, 2.2% international
white other11.4% internal, 1.4% international
mixed11.8% internal, 0.5% international
asian8.1% internal, 1.2% international
white british7.1% internal, 0.2% international

Why South Ribble is changing

-2.4pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-1.2pp
Local migration
+5.2pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View South Ribble on UK Demographics →