Trend
-14 Latest quarter change
+373 Change across series
40 Official data points
South Ribble
Mr Paul Foster
2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping South Ribble.
337 people housed on asylum support in South Ribble
Rank 95 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 29.02 per 10,000 puts South Ribble in the 89th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. 110 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £18M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs South Ribble
£6.6Mestimated hotel costs/year
£862Ksubsistence payments/year
£404KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 337 people on asylum support in South Ribble (0.31% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
South Ribble: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 227
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 0
Contingency accommodation 110
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 121
Afghan programme 165
Resettlement cumulative 49
Population context
All pathways total 623
Share of local population 0.54%
Ethnic composition projection
South Ribble: WBI 92.8% (2021) → 86.2% (2051). 80% CI: 81.8–84.2%.
Ethnic composition: South Ribble
White British White Other Asian Mixed 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: South Ribble
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in South Ribble ranges from 54.2% to 77.7% by 2051. That is a 23.5pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 62.5% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 1.0% (2021) → 1.9% (2051). Christian 65.1% → 14.8%.
Religion: South Ribble
Christian No religion
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
5% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.2). 97.9% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: South Ribble
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 7.4% moved within UK, 0.3% arrived from abroad
black 14.9% internal, 2.4% international
other 13.3% internal, 2.2% international
white other 11.4% internal, 1.4% international
mixed 11.8% internal, 0.5% international
asian 8.1% internal, 1.2% international
white british 7.1% internal, 0.2% international
Why South Ribble is changing
-2.4ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View South Ribble on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 61.6%
Mixed 70.2%
White Other 73.5%
Other 66.4%
Homeownership rate
White British 77.6%
Mixed 59.8%
White Other 58.3%
Other 51.3%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 31.7%
Mixed 34.6%
White Other 38.4%
Other 41.6%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
Crime
58.4 crimes per 1,000 residents (16th percentile). Up 0.8% year-on-year.
Crime breakdown
Key metrics
58.4 Per 1,000 residents
72 Hate crimes
21.2 Violent crime /1,000
Source
ONS recorded crime, Year ending March 2024. Correlation with asylum dispersal does not imply causation.
SEND pressure
EHCP rate: 328 per 10,000 pupils (16th percentile). 5-year growth: +33.1%.
Academic year 2023/24
Primary need types
Key metrics
1,124 Total EHCPs
34.4% ASD as primary need
Source
DfE SEN2 return, Academic year 2023/24. Rising EHCPs reflect multiple factors, not solely population change.
Social care
Adult social care: £472 per capita (12th percentile).
£472 Gross spend per capita
338 Residential per 10k 65+
19.5 Quality of life (ASCOF 1A)
548 Delayed transfer days
Source
NHS Digital SALT/ASCOF, 2023/24.
Pressure index
Combined score across 5 domains: 37.8/100.
29.0 Asylum rate /10k
-0.24pp WB annual change
58.4 Crime /1,000
+33.1% SEND 5yr growth
£472 ASC /capita
Methodology
Each domain converted to percentile rank (0-100). Composite = unweighted mean. Measures correlation, not causation.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
337 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
29.02 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
110 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North West by supported asylum.