Trend
-144 Latest quarter change
+464 Change across series
48 Official data points
Southwark
Neil Coyle
502 people housed on asylum support in Southwark
Rank 62 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 15.95 per 10,000 puts Southwark in the 71st percentile. That means this area carries more than most. 359 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £27M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Southwark
£9.9Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.3Msubsistence payments/year
£602KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 502 people on asylum support in Southwark (0.47% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Southwark: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 17
Initial accommodation 90
Subsistence only 36
Contingency accommodation 359
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 1,017
Afghan programme 65
Resettlement cumulative 53
Population context
All pathways total 1,584
Share of local population 0.5%
Ethnic composition projection
Southwark: WBI 35.5% (2021) → 18.6% (2051). 80% CI: 16.6–21.3%.
Ethnic composition: Southwark
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Southwark
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Southwark ranges from 23.8% to 26.5% by 2051. That is a 2.7pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 24.9% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 10.4% (2021) → 10.4% (2051). Christian 46.7% → 18.1%.
Religion: Southwark
Christian No religion Muslim
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
40.7% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.89). 82% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Southwark
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
high immigration gateway: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.
Census 2021 mobility: 13.5% moved within UK, 2.2% arrived from abroad
white other 20.6% internal, 5.1% international
asian 14.8% internal, 5.5% international
other 13.1% internal, 3.8% international
white british 15.8% internal, 0.8% international
mixed 14.2% internal, 2.1% international
black 5.3% internal, 0.8% international
Why Southwark is changing
-4.2ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Southwark on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 68.4%
Mixed 72.4%
White Other 80.5%
Other 68.4%
Homeownership rate
White British 32.7%
Mixed 24.6%
White Other 31.7%
Other 17.3%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 54%
Mixed 49.4%
White Other 66.1%
Other 37.6%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 39,811 pupils. 20.5% White British. Schools are 15pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
Black 38.8%
White British 20.5%
Mixed 15%
White Other 10.4%
Other 8%
Asian 7.3%
What this means
Schools are 15pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
79.5% Minority pupils now
86% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
22.2% Primary WBI
18.9% Secondary WBI
Slowing diversification. Primary schools are less diverse than secondary.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at +0.13pp/year. WBI share stable or increasing in schools.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 26.2% vs school 20.5% (-5.7pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
502 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
15.95 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
359 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in London by supported asylum.