Trend
-121 Latest quarter change
+736 Change across series
48 Official data points
Stockport
Navendu Mishra
609 people housed on asylum support in Stockport
Rank 49 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 20.04 per 10,000 puts Stockport in the 81st percentile. That means this area carries more than most. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2057. 443 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £33M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Stockport
£12.0Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.6Msubsistence payments/year
£731KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 609 people on asylum support in Stockport (0.57% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Stockport: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 154
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 12
Contingency accommodation 443
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 458
Afghan programme 36
Resettlement cumulative 26
Population context
All pathways total 1,103
Share of local population 0.36%
Ethnic composition projection
Stockport: WBI 83.4% (2021) → 56.5% (2051). White British minority by ~2057. 80% CI: 59.2–62.6%.
Ethnic composition: Stockport
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Stockport
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Stockport ranges from 61.4% to 72.1% by 2051. That is a 10.7pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 65.8% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 5.8% (2021) → 12.4% (2051). Christian 50.1% → 9.8%.
Religion: Stockport
Christian No religion Muslim
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
9.4% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.38). 95.7% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Stockport
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 7.6% moved within UK, 0.5% arrived from abroad
black 11.6% internal, 2.2% international
other 10.6% internal, 2.6% international
white other 10.5% internal, 1.7% international
asian 9.8% internal, 2.3% international
mixed 10.9% internal, 0.6% international
white british 7% internal, 0.2% international
Why Stockport is changing
-5.6ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Stockport on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 60.8%
Mixed 71.9%
White Other 68%
Other 61.2%
Homeownership rate
White British 73.2%
Mixed 52.1%
White Other 65.2%
Other 50.1%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 36.6%
Mixed 43.7%
White Other 50.2%
Other 51.8%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 42,870 pupils. 74.9% White British. Schools are 8.5pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 74.9%
Asian 11.4%
Mixed 6.6%
White Other 3.3%
Black 2.2%
Other 1.6%
What this means
Schools are 9pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
25.1% Minority pupils now
42.7% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
73.4% Primary WBI
77.2% Secondary WBI
Accelerating diversification. Primary schools are significantly more diverse than secondary.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -1.01pp/year. Rapid diversification in young cohorts. The demographic wave is accelerating.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 78.3% vs school 74.9% (-3.4pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
609 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
20.04 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
443 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North West by supported asylum.