Trend
-7 Latest quarter change
+312 Change across series
48 Official data points
Tameside
506 people housed on asylum support in Tameside
Rank 61 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 21.11 per 10,000 puts Tameside in the 82nd percentile. That means this area carries more than most. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2048. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £28M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Tameside
£10.0Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.3Msubsistence payments/year
£607KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 506 people on asylum support in Tameside (0.47% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Tameside: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 498
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 8
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 321
Afghan programme 38
Resettlement cumulative 13
Population context
All pathways total 865
Share of local population 0.36%
Ethnic composition projection
Tameside: WBI 82.4% (2021) → 43.9% (2051). White British minority by ~2048. 80% CI: 55.2–58.9%.
Ethnic composition: Tameside
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Tameside
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Tameside ranges from 57.4% to 69.4% by 2051. That is a 12pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 62.2% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 7.7% (2021) → 15.4% (2051). Christian 50.2% → 9.3%.
Religion: Tameside
Christian No religion Muslim
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
10.3% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.39). 94.1% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Tameside
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 6.6% moved within UK, 0.4% arrived from abroad
black 13.2% internal, 2.5% international
other 11.9% internal, 3.7% international
mixed 10.3% internal, 0.8% international
white other 8.4% internal, 1.7% international
asian 5.7% internal, 1.8% international
white british 6.3% internal, 0.1% international
Why Tameside is changing
-6.2ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Tameside on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 60.1%
Mixed 70.1%
White Other 70%
Other 56.8%
Homeownership rate
White British 62%
Mixed 48.7%
White Other 48.6%
Other 29.6%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 23.9%
Mixed 33.7%
White Other 33.7%
Other 32.4%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 36,967 pupils. 70.6% White British. Schools are 11.8pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 70.6%
Asian 13.9%
Mixed 6.6%
Black 4.5%
White Other 2.9%
Other 1.4%
What this means
Schools are 12pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
29.4% Minority pupils now
38.9% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
69.6% Primary WBI
71.6% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -1.02pp/year. Rapid diversification in young cohorts. The demographic wave is accelerating.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 75.4% vs school 70.6% (-4.8pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
506 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
21.11 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North West by supported asylum.