Trend
-22 Latest quarter change
+470 Change across series
48 Official data points
Tower Hamlets
488 people housed on asylum support in Tower Hamlets
Rank 65 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 14.7 per 10,000 puts Tower Hamlets in the 69th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. 66 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £27M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Tower Hamlets
£9.6Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.2Msubsistence payments/year
£586KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 488 people on asylum support in Tower Hamlets (0.46% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Tower Hamlets: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 399
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 23
Contingency accommodation 66
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 828
Afghan programme 22
Resettlement cumulative 21
Population context
All pathways total 1,338
Share of local population 0.4%
Ethnic composition projection
Tower Hamlets: WBI 22.9% (2021) → 8.0% (2051). 80% CI: 7.1–10.3%.
Ethnic composition: Tower Hamlets
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Tower Hamlets
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Tower Hamlets ranges from 14.3% to 15.7% by 2051. That is a 1.5pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 14.9% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 42.9% (2021) → 40.4% (2051). Christian 23.9% → 8.1%.
Religion: Tower Hamlets
Christian No religion Muslim
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
46.8% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.82). 73% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Tower Hamlets
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
high immigration gateway: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.
Census 2021 mobility: 16.1% moved within UK, 3.4% arrived from abroad
white other 28.5% internal, 7.6% international
other 19.1% internal, 6.5% international
mixed 20.5% internal, 3.5% international
white british 18.8% internal, 1% international
black 12.5% internal, 1.9% international
asian 10.1% internal, 3% international
Why Tower Hamlets is changing
-8.2ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Tower Hamlets on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 62.5%
Mixed 74.1%
White Other 85.2%
Other 64.6%
Homeownership rate
White British 26.6%
Mixed 23.6%
White Other 24.7%
Other 17.9%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 44.7%
Mixed 56.7%
White Other 70.2%
Other 50.4%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 44,321 pupils. 7.5% White British. Schools are 15.4pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
Asian 67.3%
Black 9.1%
Mixed 8.3%
White British 7.5%
White Other 4.8%
Other 3%
What this means
Schools are 15pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
92.5% Minority pupils now
90.2% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
8.4% Primary WBI
6% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -0.18pp/year. Gradual diversification in school-age population.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 10.9% vs school 7.5% (-3.4pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
488 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
14.7 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
66 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in London by supported asylum.