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North West

Trafford

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
165 people on asylum support in Trafford

Rank 149 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 6.85 per 10,000 puts Trafford in the 52nd percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2043. 10 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. 81 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). Accommodation and support for 165 people at £107 per person per day is about £6.4M a year.

What asylum costs Trafford

£3.7Mestimated hotel costs/year
£422Ksubsistence payments/year
£198KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 165 people on asylum support in Trafford(0.18% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Trafford: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

407
4743161580Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Sept 2025Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 201463
Jun 201479
Sept 201478
Dec 201476
Mar 201585
Jun 201591
Sept 201593
Dec 2015118
Mar 2016117
Jun 2016121
Sept 2016125
Dec 2016129
Mar 2017133
Jun 2017128
Sept 2017128
Dec 2017142
Mar 2018176
Jun 2018157
Sept 2018123
Dec 2018118
Mar 2019132
Jun 2019122
Sept 2019107
Dec 201995
Mar 2020103
Jun 2020110
Sept 2020106
Dec 2020110
Mar 2021100
Jun 202191
Sept 202199
Dec 202198
Mar 2022100
Jun 2022105
Sept 202294
Dec 202299
Mar 2023232
Jun 2023248
Sept 2023236
Dec 2023207
Mar 2024154
Jun 2024150
Sept 2024159
Dec 2024381
Mar 2025360
Jun 2025419
Sept 2025474
Dec 2025407

Trend

-67Latest quarter change
+344Change across series
48Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation74
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only10
Contingency accommodation81

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
165
Homes for Ukraine
430
Afghan programme
96
Resettlement cumulative
20

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine430
Afghan programme96
Resettlement cumulative20

Population context

All pathways total691
Share of local population0.29%

Ethnic composition projection

Trafford: White British 72.1% (2021) to 40.5% (2051). White British minority by ~2043. 80% CI: 39, 43.7%.

Ethnic composition: Trafford

021436485% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 29% in 2061White Other 5% in 2061Asian 32% in 2061Black 8% in 2061Mixed 14% in 2061Other 12% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Trafford

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
80%
2021
72%
13%
2031proj
63%
17%
2041proj
53%
22%
2051proj
40%
28%
11%
9%
2061proj
29%
32%
14%
12%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Trafford ranges from48.5% to 58.3%by 2051. That is a 9.8pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 52.4% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 9.2% (2021) → 15.6% (2051). Christian 51.0% → 10.8%.

Religion: Trafford

017345269%Census 2021Christian 11% in 2051No religion 64% in 2051Muslim 16% in 2051Hindu 8% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslimHindu

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

14.9% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.55). 92.8% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Trafford

1030507090%Census 2021UK-born 55% in 2051Foreign-born 45% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 7.5% moved within UK, 0.9% arrived from abroad
other11.3% internal, 3.2% international
asian8.6% internal, 3.2% international
white other9.4% internal, 2.2% international
mixed10.1% internal, 1% international
black8% internal, 1.4% international
white british6.8% internal, 0.3% international

Why Trafford is changing

-8.3pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
0pp
Local migration
-1.9pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Trafford on UK Demographics →