Trend
-67 Latest quarter change
+344 Change across series
48 Official data points
Trafford
258 people housed on asylum support in Trafford
Rank 118 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 10.7 per 10,000 puts Trafford in the 62nd percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2040. 167 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £14M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Trafford
£5.1Mestimated hotel costs/year
£660Ksubsistence payments/year
£310KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 258 people on asylum support in Trafford (0.24% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Trafford: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 83
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 8
Contingency accommodation 167
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 430
Afghan programme 86
Resettlement cumulative 20
Population context
All pathways total 774
Share of local population 0.32%
Ethnic composition projection
Trafford: WBI 72.1% (2021) → 33.0% (2051). White British minority by ~2040. 80% CI: 36.2–39.5%.
Ethnic composition: Trafford
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Trafford
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Trafford ranges from 48.5% to 58.3% by 2051. That is a 9.8pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 52.4% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 9.2% (2021) → 15.6% (2051). Christian 51.0% → 10.8%.
Religion: Trafford
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
14.9% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.55). 92.8% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Trafford
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 7.5% moved within UK, 0.9% arrived from abroad
other 11.3% internal, 3.2% international
asian 8.6% internal, 3.2% international
white other 9.4% internal, 2.2% international
mixed 10.1% internal, 1% international
black 8% internal, 1.4% international
white british 6.8% internal, 0.3% international
Why Trafford is changing
-8.3ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Trafford on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 62.3%
Mixed 68.3%
White Other 69.7%
Other 61.8%
Homeownership rate
White British 71.2%
Mixed 46.4%
White Other 60.6%
Other 50.5%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 42%
Mixed 44.1%
White Other 51.5%
Other 56.5%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 43,374 pupils. 55% White British. Schools are 17.1pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 55%
Asian 23.2%
Mixed 9.2%
Black 4.9%
White Other 4.6%
Other 3%
What this means
Schools are 17pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
45% Minority pupils now
59.3% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
56% Primary WBI
53.7% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -1.4pp/year. Rapid diversification in young cohorts. The demographic wave is accelerating.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 62.3% vs school 55% (-7.3pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
258 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
10.7 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
167 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North West by supported asylum.