Trend
-118 Latest quarter change
+645 Change across series
48 Official data points
Wakefield
Simon Lightwood
648 people housed on asylum support in Wakefield
Rank 45 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 17.62 per 10,000 puts Wakefield in the 75th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2060. 140 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £35M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Wakefield
£12.8Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.7Msubsistence payments/year
£778KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 648 people on asylum support in Wakefield (0.61% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. 1 known hotel sites in this area. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Wakefield: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 308
Initial accommodation 188
Subsistence only 12
Contingency accommodation 140
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 293
Afghan programme 149
Resettlement cumulative 208
Population context
All pathways total 1,090
Share of local population 0.3%
Ethnic composition projection
Wakefield: WBI 88.2% (2021) → 61.6% (2051). White British minority by ~2060. 80% CI: 62.7–66.9%.
Ethnic composition: Wakefield
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Wakefield
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Wakefield ranges from 67.7% to 77.6% by 2051. That is a 9.8pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 71.8% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 3.4% (2021) → 5.6% (2051). Christian 51.8% → 8.3%.
Religion: Wakefield
Christian No religion Muslim
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
8.5% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.29). 94.5% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Wakefield
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 7.3% moved within UK, 0.4% arrived from abroad
black 12.8% internal, 2.9% international
other 10.3% internal, 4.3% international
white other 11.7% internal, 2.5% international
mixed 10.8% internal, 0.7% international
asian 7% internal, 2.3% international
white british 6.9% internal, 0.1% international
Why Wakefield is changing
-4.6ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Wakefield on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 59.1%
Mixed 67%
White Other 81.3%
Other 60.5%
Homeownership rate
White British 65.1%
Mixed 48.6%
White Other 33.6%
Other 37.2%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 23.8%
Mixed 30.1%
White Other 30.9%
Other 32.1%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 54,403 pupils. 79.5% White British. Schools are 8.7pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 79.5%
White Other 5.7%
Asian 5.6%
Mixed 4.3%
Black 3.6%
Other 1.3%
What this means
Schools are 9pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
20.5% Minority pupils now
35.6% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
78.3% Primary WBI
81.2% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -0.77pp/year. Gradual diversification in school-age population.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 83.4% vs school 79.5% (-3.9pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
648 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
17.62 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
140 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in Yorkshire and The Humber by supported asylum.