Trend
-13 Latest quarter change
+454 Change across series
45 Official data points
Warrington
Charlotte Nichols
2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Warrington.
375 people housed on asylum support in Warrington
Rank 84 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 17.41 per 10,000 puts Warrington in the 74th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. 126 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £21M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Warrington
£7.4Mestimated hotel costs/year
£959Ksubsistence payments/year
£450KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 375 people on asylum support in Warrington (0.35% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Warrington: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 247
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 2
Contingency accommodation 126
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 344
Afghan programme 28
Resettlement cumulative 48
Population context
All pathways total 747
Share of local population 0.35%
Ethnic composition projection
Warrington: WBI 88.2% (2021) → 64.8% (2051). 80% CI: 61.9–66.2%.
Ethnic composition: Warrington
White British White Other Asian Mixed 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Warrington
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Warrington ranges from 61.7% to 76.2% by 2051. That is a 14.5pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 67.3% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 1.8% (2021) → 3.9% (2051). Christian 59.8% → 13.6%.
Religion: Warrington
Christian No religion Muslim
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
9.4% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.29). 94.6% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Warrington
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 7.9% moved within UK, 0.6% arrived from abroad
black 14.7% internal, 5.1% international
other 14.5% internal, 3.1% international
white other 13.8% internal, 3.5% international
asian 9.1% internal, 5.6% international
mixed 10.4% internal, 0.9% international
white british 7.3% internal, 0.2% international
Why Warrington is changing
-4.8ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Warrington on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 61.3%
Mixed 70%
White Other 81.1%
Other 65.4%
Homeownership rate
White British 71.6%
Mixed 54.1%
White Other 37.6%
Other 45.1%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 32.6%
Mixed 38.6%
White Other 38%
Other 38.1%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 32,781 pupils. 77.3% White British. Schools are 10.8pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 77.3%
Asian 9.5%
White Other 5.6%
Mixed 4.4%
Black 2%
Other 1.1%
What this means
Schools are 11pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
22.7% Minority pupils now
35.3% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
75.6% Primary WBI
79.2% Secondary WBI
Accelerating diversification. Primary schools are significantly more diverse than secondary.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -1.3pp/year. Rapid diversification in young cohorts. The demographic wave is accelerating.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 85.2% vs school 77.3% (-7.9pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
375 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
17.41 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
126 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North West by supported asylum.