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North West

Warrington

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Charlotte Nichols
Charlotte NicholsLabour · Warrington North

2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Warrington.

397 people on asylum support in Warrington

Rank 77 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 18.43 per 10,000 puts Warrington in the 79th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. 4 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. 127 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). Accommodation and support for 397 people at £107 per person per day is about £15.5M a year.

What asylum costs Warrington

£9.0Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.0Msubsistence payments/year
£476KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 397 people on asylum support in Warrington(0.43% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Warrington: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

456
4693131560Sept 2014Dec 2025Peak Sept 2025Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Sept 20142
Dec 20142
Mar 20152
Jun 20152
Sept 20153
Dec 20152
Mar 20162
Jun 20162
Sept 20162
Mar 201713
Jun 201716
Sept 201718
Dec 201718
Mar 201819
Jun 201817
Sept 201817
Dec 201818
Mar 201917
Jun 201919
Sept 201920
Dec 201924
Mar 202026
Jun 202029
Sept 202029
Dec 202027
Mar 202126
Jun 202132
Sept 202125
Dec 202181
Mar 202237
Jun 202261
Sept 202275
Dec 2022249
Mar 2023235
Jun 2023256
Sept 2023425
Dec 2023267
Mar 2024167
Jun 2024288
Sept 2024371
Dec 2024401
Mar 2025367
Jun 2025446
Sept 2025469
Dec 2025456

Trend

-13Latest quarter change
+454Change across series
45Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation266
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only4
Contingency accommodation127

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
397
Homes for Ukraine
348
Afghan programme
28
Resettlement cumulative
48

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine348
Afghan programme28
Resettlement cumulative48

Population context

All pathways total773
Share of local population0.36%

Ethnic composition projection

Warrington: White British 88.2% (2021) to 70.0% (2051). 80% CI: 69.3, 73.5%.

Ethnic composition: Warrington

024497398% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 60% in 2061White Other 12% in 2061Asian 7% in 2061Mixed 10% in 2061Other 7% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Warrington

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
93%
2021
88%
2031proj
84%
2041proj
78%
9%
2051proj
70%
11%
2061proj
60%
12%
10%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Warrington ranges from61.7% to 76.2%by 2051. That is a 14.5pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 67.3% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 1.8% (2021) → 3.9% (2051). Christian 59.8% → 13.6%.

Religion: Warrington

021436486%Census 2021Christian 14% in 2051No religion 81% in 2051Muslim 4% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslim

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

9.4% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.29). 94.6% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Warrington

427507396%Census 2021UK-born 68% in 2051Foreign-born 32% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 7.9% moved within UK, 0.6% arrived from abroad
black14.7% internal, 5.1% international
other14.5% internal, 3.1% international
white other13.8% internal, 3.5% international
asian9.1% internal, 5.6% international
mixed10.4% internal, 0.9% international
white british7.3% internal, 0.2% international

Why Warrington is changing

-4.8pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-1pp
Local migration
+2.6pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Warrington on UK Demographics →