Trend
+0 Latest quarter change
+405 Change across series
43 Official data points
West Lancashire
Ashley Dalton
420 people housed on asylum support in West Lancashire
Rank 76 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 34.43 per 10,000 puts West Lancashire in the 93rd percentile. That means this area carries more asylum seekers per head than 90% of the country. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £23M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs West Lancashire
£8.3Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.1Msubsistence payments/year
£504KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 420 people on asylum support in West Lancashire (0.39% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
West Lancashire: asylum numbers holding steady
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 419
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 1
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 230
Afghan programme 134
Resettlement cumulative 80
Population context
All pathways total 784
Share of local population 0.64%
Ethnic composition projection
West Lancashire: WBI 92.8% (2021) → 81.0% (2051). 80% CI: 78.1–82.4%.
Ethnic composition: West Lancashire
White British White Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: West Lancashire
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in West Lancashire ranges from 55.8% to 78.1% by 2051. That is a 22.3pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 63.8% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 0.5% (2021) → 0.9% (2051). Christian 65.2% → 14.1%.
Religion: West Lancashire
Christian No religion
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
6% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.19). 96.7% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: West Lancashire
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 10.1% moved within UK, 0.5% arrived from abroad
black 27.8% internal, 4.4% international
other 13.9% internal, 7.5% international
asian 16.3% internal, 2.4% international
white other 13.7% internal, 3.8% international
mixed 15% internal, 1.6% international
white british 9.7% internal, 0.2% international
Why West Lancashire is changing
-2.7ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View West Lancashire on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 56.5%
Mixed 64%
White Other 77%
Other 63.5%
Homeownership rate
White British 73%
Mixed 61.4%
White Other 41.9%
Other 48.2%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 29.9%
Mixed 32.2%
White Other 30.6%
Other 40.7%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
Crime
54.8 crimes per 1,000 residents (12th percentile). Up 0.3% year-on-year.
Crime breakdown
Key metrics
54.8 Per 1,000 residents
48 Hate crimes
19.8 Violent crime /1,000
Source
ONS recorded crime, Year ending March 2024. Correlation with asylum dispersal does not imply causation.
SEND pressure
EHCP rate: 312 per 10,000 pupils (8th percentile). 5-year growth: +31.4%.
Academic year 2023/24
Primary need types
Key metrics
1,042 Total EHCPs
35.8% ASD as primary need
Source
DfE SEN2 return, Academic year 2023/24. Rising EHCPs reflect multiple factors, not solely population change.
Social care
Adult social care: £478 per capita (16th percentile).
£478 Gross spend per capita
348 Residential per 10k 65+
19.4 Quality of life (ASCOF 1A)
624 Delayed transfer days
Source
NHS Digital SALT/ASCOF, 2023/24.
Pressure index
Combined score across 5 domains: 37.8/100.
34.4 Asylum rate /10k
-0.27pp WB annual change
54.8 Crime /1,000
+31.4% SEND 5yr growth
£478 ASC /capita
Methodology
Each domain converted to percentile rank (0-100). Composite = unweighted mean. Measures correlation, not causation.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
420 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
34.43 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North West by supported asylum.