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North West

West Lancashire

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Ashley Dalton
Ashley DaltonLabour · West Lancashire
420 people on asylum support in West Lancashire

Rank 72 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 33.99 per 10,000 puts West Lancashire in the 93rd percentile. That means this area carries more asylum seekers per head than 90% of the country. 1 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 420 people at £107 per person per day is about £16.4M a year.

What asylum costs West Lancashire

£9.5Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.1Msubsistence payments/year
£504KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 420 people on asylum support in West Lancashire(0.45% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

West Lancashire: asylum numbers holding steady

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

409
4192791400Jun 2015Dec 2025Peak Jun 2025Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Jun 20154
Sept 201517
Dec 201553
Mar 201673
Jun 201684
Sept 201681
Dec 201697
Mar 2017104
Jun 2017102
Sept 201796
Dec 2017115
Mar 2018130
Jun 2018128
Sept 2018130
Dec 2018133
Mar 2019139
Jun 2019126
Sept 2019109
Dec 2019104
Mar 2020114
Jun 2020126
Sept 2020118
Dec 2020121
Mar 2021130
Jun 2021130
Sept 2021131
Dec 2021142
Mar 2022151
Jun 2022152
Sept 2022140
Dec 2022139
Mar 2023136
Jun 2023198
Sept 2023198
Dec 2023208
Mar 2024240
Jun 2024321
Sept 2024359
Dec 2024375
Mar 2025403
Jun 2025419
Sept 2025409
Dec 2025409

Trend

+0Latest quarter change
+405Change across series
43Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation419
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only1
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
420
Homes for Ukraine
239
Afghan programme
126
Resettlement cumulative
80

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine239
Afghan programme126
Resettlement cumulative80

Population context

All pathways total785
Share of local population0.64%

Ethnic composition projection

West Lancashire: White British 92.8% (2021) to 84.9% (2051). 80% CI: 84.1, 87.2%.

Ethnic composition: West Lancashire

0255075100% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 81% in 2061White Other 9% in 2061Mixed 5% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherMixed 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: West Lancashire

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
96%
2021
93%
2031proj
91%
2041proj
88%
2051proj
85%
8%
2061proj
81%
9%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in West Lancashire ranges from55.8% to 78.1%by 2051. That is a 22.3pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 63.8% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 0.5% (2021) → 0.9% (2051). Christian 65.2% → 14.1%.

Religion: West Lancashire

929496989%Census 2021Christian 14% in 2051No religion 84% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religion

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

6% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.19). 96.7% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: West Lancashire

126507599%Census 2021UK-born 66% in 2051Foreign-born 34% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 10.1% moved within UK, 0.5% arrived from abroad
black27.8% internal, 4.4% international
other13.9% internal, 7.5% international
asian16.3% internal, 2.4% international
white other13.7% internal, 3.8% international
mixed15% internal, 1.6% international
white british9.7% internal, 0.2% international

Why West Lancashire is changing

-2.7pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-1.2pp
Local migration
+4.9pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View West Lancashire on UK Demographics →