Trend
-31 Latest quarter change
+771 Change across series
48 Official data points
Wigan
Lisa Nandy
1,188 people housed on asylum support in Wigan
Rank 16 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 34.44 per 10,000 puts Wigan in the 93rd percentile. That means this area carries more asylum seekers per head than 90% of the country. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £65M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Wigan
£23.4Mestimated hotel costs/year
£3.0Msubsistence payments/year
£1.4MLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 1,188 people on asylum support in Wigan (1.11% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Wigan: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 1,178
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 10
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 270
Afghan programme 28
Resettlement cumulative 0
Population context
All pathways total 1,486
Share of local population 0.43%
Ethnic composition projection
Wigan: WBI 91.9% (2021) → 70.4% (2051). 80% CI: 70.7–74.4%.
Ethnic composition: Wigan
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Wigan
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Wigan ranges from 71.7% to 82.9% by 2051. That is a 11.2pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 76.2% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 1.3% (2021) → 2.8% (2051). Christian 65.9% → 11.9%.
Religion: Wigan
Christian No religion
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
6.2% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.23). 96.5% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Wigan
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 7.2% moved within UK, 0.4% arrived from abroad
black 15.5% internal, 3.2% international
asian 12% internal, 5.6% international
white other 12.5% internal, 3.1% international
other 11.8% internal, 3.7% international
mixed 11.2% internal, 1.3% international
white british 6.8% internal, 0.1% international
Why Wigan is changing
-3.6ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Wigan on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 60.1%
Mixed 68.4%
White Other 75%
Other 55.5%
Homeownership rate
White British 68%
Mixed 50.4%
White Other 43.6%
Other 24.2%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 25.4%
Mixed 34.1%
White Other 33.3%
Other 32.7%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 48,339 pupils. 82.6% White British. Schools are 9.3pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 82.6%
Black 4.4%
Asian 4%
White Other 4%
Mixed 3.4%
Other 1.5%
What this means
Schools are 9pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
17.4% Minority pupils now
28.9% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
80.5% Primary WBI
85.1% Secondary WBI
Accelerating diversification. Primary schools are significantly more diverse than secondary.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -1.3pp/year. Rapid diversification in young cohorts. The demographic wave is accelerating.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 89% vs school 82.6% (-6.4pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
1,188 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
34.44 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in North West by supported asylum.