Trend
+33 Latest quarter change
+786 Change across series
48 Official data points
Wirral
Matthew Patrick
705 people housed on asylum support in Wirral
Rank 35 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 21.44 per 10,000 puts Wirral in the 83rd percentile. That means this area carries more than most. 37 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £39M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Wirral
£13.9Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.8Msubsistence payments/year
£846KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 705 people on asylum support in Wirral (0.66% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Wirral: asylum numbers still rising
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 664
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 4
Contingency accommodation 37
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 560
Afghan programme 66
Resettlement cumulative 155
Population context
All pathways total 1,331
Share of local population 0.4%
Ethnic composition projection
Wirral: WBI 92.4% (2021) → 82.9% (2051). 80% CI: 79.2–81.7%.
Ethnic composition: Wirral
White British White Other Asian Mixed 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Wirral
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Wirral ranges from 72.3% to 84.5% by 2051. That is a 12.2pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 77.2% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 1.1% (2021) → 2.5% (2051). Christian 58.1% → 11.1%.
Religion: Wirral
Christian No religion
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
5.4% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.21). 97.7% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Wirral
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 7.2% moved within UK, 0.4% arrived from abroad
black 16.2% internal, 2.4% international
other 11.2% internal, 5.6% international
white other 9.2% internal, 2% international
mixed 10% internal, 0.9% international
asian 8.3% internal, 2.3% international
white british 7% internal, 0.2% international
Why Wirral is changing
-2.5ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Wirral on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 55.7%
Mixed 64.4%
White Other 66.1%
Other 59.5%
Homeownership rate
White British 66.1%
Mixed 54.9%
White Other 56.1%
Other 40.7%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 30.8%
Mixed 38.7%
White Other 47.5%
Other 41%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 48,714 pupils. 86.4% White British. Schools are 6pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 86.4%
Asian 4.8%
Mixed 3.8%
White Other 2.6%
Black 1.4%
Other 1%
What this means
Schools are 6pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
13.6% Minority pupils now
22.9% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
86.6% Primary WBI
85.8% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -0.6pp/year. Gradual diversification in school-age population.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 90.2% vs school 86.4% (-3.8pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
705 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
21.44 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
37 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North West by supported asylum.